AN EXCERCISE IN STUPIDITY

It’s hard to determine what was the dumbest play Nevada made all night, but here are the choices:

-Using three timeouts on the first drive
-Trying to catch that first punt
-Personal foul on the fumble with 23 seconds left.
-Going for 2 after the 13-12 TD
-Timeout on the 31-19 2 point conversion.
-offsides on 3rd on 4 with a minute left.
-fill in the blank.*

*This wasn’t Nevada’s fault, but I tweeted about the illegal pick play call. This was the worst call I have seen in awhile. I’ll give the refs the benefit of the doubt on this one and say the LoS was at the 3, and he caught the ball at the one and a half. Neither of those are true. Still, that is 1.5 yards. 4 and a half feet. Even #MitchLowe’s fully erect penis would fit in that distance. Just a brutal call.

Luckily for Nevada none of that garbage cost them the game. Nevada’s secondary, and an unfortunate turnover cost them the game.

Nevada had the most incompetent secondary I have ever seen(hyperbole!). Missouri is not a good football team. When they face a Big12 defense with an actual secondary they are going to get killed. Nevada won the battle of the lines in that game and a combination of an inept secondary, worse than inept coaching and unfortunate turnovers were too much for them to overcome.

South Florida +14 -104(1)
Not my favorite play, but I don’t see how I can avoid it.

Rice +6.5 -103(1)
I never really had time/or cared at the time to explain why I played USC for a 4, and Nevada for a 2. Nevada had all the contrarian makings of a max play, but at the end of the day I just kept getting the “who really cares” feeling in that game. USC-Ole Miss on the other hand stuck out to me as a game people would be talking about. I’m not sure that was the right call over the long run, but I feel more confident in a game that leads SportsCenter against a game that falls somewhere between the Steve Marino Tour Championship highlights and off-season NHL news. Why do I bring this up? Well, because Rice +7 against Vandy violates the “Who really cares” rule. Not sure this game will get much attention, but I’ve heard Rice called out as awful several times this season and they are a well deserved 0-3.

My biggest concern is that I get pissed that Rice loses by 14 after being outgained by 4 yards and I force a double next week against Tulsa.

Illinois +14 -104(1)
I could be totally wrong about this, because I’m basing it on one game, but I think USC loss to Washington confirms everything I believed about both teams. Namely, they were both overrated.

Bowling Green +16.5 -106(1)
One of my biggest problems in year’s past has been losing against an overrated small conference team that shouldn’t have won/covered and then fading them for three straight weeks because I was mad. That could apply here, but the consensus seems to be on Boise State.

-Passing USC on the Detroit Lions corollary. -45 is the definition of a number I just don’t want to lay ever, but Washington State has a history of being horrendously bad(+7 AT HOME vs. SMU). If they were 5-6 last year, fine I’ll take this, but 2 wins last season over a winless team and Portland State, while probably meaningless, is just too much to ignore.

-My next biggest pass was Clemson. I get the growing feeling Clemson-Miami are the two best teams in the ACC speaking in terms of pure power ratings. Under a FG at home against a ranked team is tempting, but Dabo Swinney will surely make 2 crucial mistakes and Clemson isn’t all that unpopular to begin with.

-Should have played Missy St. early in the week. Had a strong feeling LSU is not that good and everyone thinks Mississippi State is terrible. Well, everyone except sharps and Vegas. Sliding down from over 14 to 12 is a huge move to take now. I’d feel great at 14, 12 is probably a pretty fair line.

-4 Games. Weak.

-It’s time to get involved with some small schools. Delaware +5.5 -110(.5) I’m slightly partial to Delaware, but they did go 4-8 last year and are taking on a William and Mary team with a D-1A win. Delaware pilfered Penn St. back-up Pat Devlin and I don’t think there is a huge difference between Delaware and the top of the CAA(Richmond, Villanova, JMU, W&M).

WMI +37 -110(.5) got hammered against almost equivalent JMU squad last week and now faces a top-ranked Richmond squad which beat Hofstra 47-0 last week. Since there is a playoff, which Richmond will almost certainly make, you won’t have to worry about the Urban Meyer dick FG to cover, either.

Finally, a contrarian 1-aa card wouldn’t be complete without Liberty +5.5 -110(.5) against JMU. I really only follow the CAA, and couldn’t tell you anything meaningful about Liberty, other than that I think it is in Lynchburg, but they are only getting 5.5 points from a team that took Maryland to overtime. Liberty is not the traditional D-1aa powerhouse that James Madison is.

Good luck to all. I’ll certainly need it after taking a whole paragraph to explain why I don’t like betting games that people don’t care about, then risking approximately 3.5 units on Delaware, Liberty, WMI, Rice and Bowling Green.*

*You probably thought the title only referred to Chris Ault.

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One response to “AN EXCERCISE IN STUPIDITY

  1. Pingback: Week 4 CFB: I Still Hate Chris Ault | The Money Line Journal

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