LAST PLACE BABY!

Yup, that’s where I sit in my pool currently with a 7-9 showing last week. At least the people in front of me are huge squares.

Cincinnati +4.5 v. Pittsburgh
Current Pinny Line: +4
Cincinnati is at home, less popular and getting an extra .5 points. Easy choice, for these purposes. Given last weeks results much harder to get excited about Cincinnati as an actual play.
Chance of actual play: small

Washington -6.5 @ Detroit
Current Pinny Line: -6.5
Hmm. What is going on here. I know the Redskins have looked god awful in their first two games, but come on people. They are on the road, favored by less than a touchdown against a team that has been terrible for the first two weeks of the season and went 0-16 last season. I guess Washington is the right side, but I can think of 19 straight reasons to pass.
Chance of actual play: small

St. Louis +6.5 v. Green Bay
Current Pinny Line: +6.5
The obvious home underdog, who people think is worse than they are and is getting no attention angle here. Still a strong look, but it would have been so much better if Green Bay, who is probably overrated in general, had not lost last week.
Chance of actual play: Strong

San Francisco +7.5 @ Minnesota
Pinny: +6.5
This can best be summed up by saying, I hate Brett Favre and am getting a full extra point across a key number. I’m pretty sure that’s not the logic the public is using to make San Francisco surprisingly more popular at ESPN.
Chance of actual play: None.

New England -4.5 v. Atlanta
Pinny: +4
I’m starting to think the title of this post should be, “Making up angles.” I’m giving up an extra .5 points taking a team everyone(less people than last week) assume is the same powerhouse from 2 years ago. That’s clearly not true, but they aren’t as bad as they played last week, and I think Atlanta, at 2-0, is not that good. This one is a gametime decision and could go either way.
Chance of actual play: None.

Tennessee +2.5 @ NYJ
Pinny +1
1.5 is enough in this one, which is again surprising that the Jets aren’t getting more action. Tennessee LOST to the Texans last week. Obvious contrarian angle in this game after the Jets hot start, but the consensus figures don’t seem to back it up.
Chance of actual play: small.

Kansas City +9.5 @ Philadelphia
Pinny: +9
Kansas City should have beaten the Raiders last week. Probably by a lot. The Eagles were awful against the Saints and have a back-up quarterback starting. I guess I’ll reluctantly take the Chiefs.
Chance of actual play: None.

Tampa Bay +7.5 v. NYG
Pinny: +6.5
You figure this one out: Week 1: Dallas destroys Tampa Bay. Week 2: NYG beat Dallas. Week 3:…
Chance of actual play: Strong.

Cleveland +13.5 v. Baltimore
Pinny: +13.5
Not much here either. You’d think 2-0 -13.5 would be more popular against 0-2.
Chance of actual play: small.

Jacksonville +3.5 @ Houston
Pinny: +3.5
After Jacksonville got destroyed last week, and Houston had a surprising road win against the Titans, I’m pretty sure no one believes these two teams are approximately equal on a neutral field.
Chance of actual play: Strong

Seattle +2.5 v. Chicago
Pinny: +1 +109
Getting between 1 to .5 points of value here with the Seahawks is fine, because I really don’t think Chicago is that good. I’m also fairly convinced that Jay Cutler is going to be the most inconsistent quarterback in the NFL this season. He just looks like he thinks he is the best quarterback ever and can make every play. We’ll see how that works out for him.
Chance of actual play: Strong.

Buffalo +5.5 v. New Orleans
Pinny: +6
I’m not going to let two 40+ point outings convince me otherwise that New Orleans is anything more than a slightly above average team. At least not yet. Strong consensus on the Saints, makes the Bills the easy choice. In related news, this has to be a pretty good under game as well.
Chance of actual play: Strong

Oakland -1.5 v. Denver
Pinny: +1
Going against Vegas in this one, because I’m still putting weight in FO’s opinion that the Broncos would be awful. Otherwise, I have no strong feelings about this game, other than that if it on TV, I’ll be watching Luke Donald’s 6 shot victory at the Tour Championship.
Chance of actual play: None.

Miami +5.5 v. San Diego
Pinny: +6
In related news, I’ll be taking the 2-minute drill -10000 over Tony Sparano.
Chance of actual play: none.

Arizona -1.5
v. Indianapolis
Pinny: -2.5
Just going with the extra point here. There is absolutely no other angle I could find here other than that. Looking at how, Indy’s opponents have faired and Vegas’ lines for those games, I’m going to say the Colts are not very good this year. That could be useful at later weeks.
Chance of actual play: None.

Dallas v. Carolina
Pinny: Dallas -9 +108
I’ll keep an eye on this line as the game nears and I may switch to Carolina. This one has pass written all over it, and I can enjoy Tony Romo’s four interceptions or a poorly run 2-minute drill for a change.

If I had to make a card right now its: Bills, Seahawks, Bucs, Rams, Jags, Bills U, MNF U, but I haven’t checked the consensus sites fully yet. I don’t about anyone else, but this week seemed a lot more black and white than the options the past two weeks.

Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 13 pts
Percentile: 30.1

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1 Comment

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One response to “LAST PLACE BABY!

  1. This is the reason round-by-round bets have been driving me nuts this year.

    Round 1: Phil loses to Goosen mainly because of one hole, where he made an 8.

    Round 2: Phil is going to murder Goosen as he is -4 thru 16 and Goosen is +3 thru 8.

    Of course, the Phil-Goosen match-up, which would have been higher than +105 for the stupid reason that Phil had one bad hole, if offered, wasn’t offered anywhere.

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