WELL, WEEK 1 WENT WELL

Currently sitting in the 19th percentile of ESPN and second to last in my pool with 6 points last week.

Week 2:(Picks are first,jotted down the lines from Pinny last night, so they may be off)
Carolina +6.5 @ Atlanta
Current Pinny Line: +6.5
This game is an example of why Week 2 is so much fun. People are basing everything about this game on the fact that Jake Delhomme sucks and Atlanta is for real after beating Miami. Now, that may be true, but the Eagles are potentially a really good team, and Atlanta only out-gained Miami 281-259 last week, so be careful if you’re putting too much stock in week 1.
Chance of Actual Play: Strong

Detroit +9.5 v. Minnesota
Pinny: +10
This game is the definition of ugly. Minnesota is overrated for one reason, Brett Favre. It’s probably true that Brett Favre isn’t that much better, except in the court of public opinion, than Sage Rosenfels or Tavarias Jackson, but what makes this scary is that the rest of the Vikings team is actually pretty good. That and they ran all over Cleveland while Detroit couldn’t stop New Orleans and has a rookie quarterback. It must be some kind of sick joke that Vegas knew all this and the line is still 9.5.
Chance of Actual Play: Strong

Cincinnati +9.5 @ Green Bay
Pinny line: +9.5
Green Bay looked good on national television, Cincinnati lost at home to Denver, albeit on a fluky play, so it looks like the Bengals.
Chance of actual play: small.

Houston +7.5 @ Tennessee
Pinny line: +6.5
Getting an extra point, especially a key one, is big here. Will it be enough to overcome the Titans seeking revenge for an OT loss against Pittsburgh or the fact that based solely on last week, Houston sucks.
Chance of actual play: strong.

Kansas City -3.5 v. Oakland
Pinny line: -3
On the brigh tside of this one, Tom Cable is a moron and JaMarcus Russell is as accurate as the PGA Tour’s shot-tracker. Kansas City is much less popular in this one, probably because they could be quarterbacked by Brody Croyle and got out-gained 501-188 last week. This is another example of why Week 2 is awesome.
Chance of actual play: Moderate.

NYJ +5.5 v. New England Patriots
Pinny: 3.5
Week 1 suggests Pats here, but 2 points and a home dog is enough to take the Jets.
Chance of actual play: none

Philadelphia -1.5 v. New Orleans
Pinny: -1
I knew this line was out there for a few days, and my first reaction on looking back at it was, “WOW, The Eagles are home.” Kevin Kolb will probably start, but I still can’t see how New Orleans is 2 points better than the Eagles. I really get the feeling that people are treating New Orleans like an 11-5 team after dominating the Lions. It’s the Lions, people. Hopefully, the Eagles are more competent defensively.
Chance of actual play: moderate.

St. Louis +10.5 @ Washington
Pinny +10
Not much here. Washington and St. Louis fairly evenly split on ESPN and Wagerline. I’ll side with the underdog and the points coming off a blowout last week over the Redskins, who weren’t quite as bad as everyone thought.
Chance of actual play: small.

Jacksonville -3.5 v. Arizona
Pinny: -3
It’s a shame that Arizona already exposed themselves as frauds and Jacksonville played tough against Indy, because this line could be a lot lower. Still, something must look off to people that the defending runner-up is getting 3 against a garbage Jacksonville team, because Jacksonville is less popular.
Chance of actual play: moderate.

San Francisco -1.5 v. Seattle
Pinny: -1
Again, this would be a lot better if San Fran didn’t win last week and Seattle wasn’t simply dominant against the Rams. This line isn’t saying the 9ers are better, but it is probably closer than most people think.
Chance of actual play: moderate

Tampa Bay +4.5 @ Buffalo
Pinny: +5
Buffalo is coming off what should be a win against the 2007 Patriots. Parts of that statement might be a lie, but they still look like the more popular option over Bucs, who no one thinks is good and got hammered last week.
Chance of actual play: moderate.

Chicago Bears +2.5 v. Pittsburgh
Pinny: +3
Chicago got destroyed last week on national T.V. which always helps. Jay Cutler is a terrible quarterback. The Pittsburgh Steelers squeaked out a win because of the clutch play of Big Ben. Sounds like a play. The only concern I have here is that the Bears were pretty hyped coming into the season, but the line has held pretty firm at 3 and the Bears are not popular.
Chance of actual play: strong.

Cleveland +3.5 @ Denver
Pinny: +3
This looked a lot better last Sunday night as Denver cost everyone money, and Cleveland gave everyone money last weekend. Apparently, no one cares about this game, though. Opinion-wise I’ll take the awful Browns over what should be an even worse Denver team.
Chance of actual play: small

Baltimore +4.5 @ San Diego
Pinny line: -3
San Diego is unpopular for a favorite at -3, but not enough so that I’m willing to give up 1.5 points across a key number.
Chance of actual play: small(on Chargers)

New York Giants +2.5 @ Dallas
Pinny line: +3
Is Dallas .5-1 points worse than NYG on a neutral field? Since I don’t see a contrarian angle here, I’ll side with my gut, and say no way in hell.
Chance of actual play: none.

Miami +3.5 v. Indianapolis
Pinny line: +3
These early season games drive me nuts. Miami is far far less popular. They are also not supposed to be all that good after a lucky, but playoff, campaign last season. What worries me about this game is what would the line be if Miami went 8-8 and missed the playoffs like they probably should have last year. I don’t mind going against my gut and Football Outsiders’ projections in a game like this, but I want to make sure this line holds firm first, just to make sure Vegas actually believes in the Dolphins(or hates the Colts).
Chance of actual play: Moderate.

Last week: 6-10
Season: 6-10
Percentile: 19.7

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3 Comments

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3 responses to “WELL, WEEK 1 WENT WELL

  1. “What worries me about this game is what would the line be if Miami went 8-8 and missed the playoffs like they probably should have last year”

    3. The books lined Miami as a dog at home in the playoffs last year. The odds makers weren’t fooled.

    Also, Indy’s Week 1 line implies that they’d be a Pick’ Em @ Jax. I don’t think it is totally unreasonable to think that Miami is 3-4 points worse than Jax.

  2. bobbygee

    I am glad the Eagles won now we have tough one against New Orleans. McNabb out is not good. The “D” needs to play lights out.

  3. Fair points, but if the line slides up in that game(or in the Bears game) I’ll have no problem passing them.

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