WHOOPS WE WON A TOURNAMENT

Part II of my look inside the Tour Championship field.

25. Dustin Johnson
How he got here: Johnson improbably turned a mediocre 2008 regular season campaign into two wins since Turning Stone in the Fall Series last year. Johnson is on a mini-roll right now with 5 straight finishes of 30th or better.

East Lake Predicition: Johnson is probably pretty fairly valued, by my numbers. He has been one of the 30 best golfers in the world easily with his 2009 performance alone, but its still hard to totally discount a worse than tour average 2008. Johnson has tons of talent(not many guys can hit it as far as he does), but realistically is probably playing over his head.
Line to win: 125-1

24. Angel Cabrera
How he got here: His 2009 Masters victory was quite possibly the luckiest win in golf history. Not only did he win a three man playoff, he hit a tree and happened to bounce back into the fairway during the playoff. Cabrera has some good finishes, like the win at the Masters, or a fourth two weeks ago, but he also has a pretty high number of missed cuts and bad rounds for a supposed good player.

East Lake Prediction: Cabrera has to be one of the most inconsistent “good” players around, so who knows. If you’re looking for consistency out of Cabrera the best you are going to get is consistently overrated
Line to win: 125-1

23. Scott Verplank
How he got here: Okay maybe Scott hasn’t won on tour this year, but I have to fit him into this spot, to be fair to my rankings. Verplank actually has some really sneaky good results, especially of late, if that means anything. He seems like the next Stewart Cink.

East Lake Prediction: Verplank is never one to get too much attention, although he has tried to of late, but he’s not exactly a guy I’m willing to pimp either. As unknown as a 45-year-old may be, I would rather take younger players who are more likely to improve going forward.
Line to win: 125-1

22. Lucas Glover
How he got here: He won the U.S. Open. Glover also has some really good finishes on really good courses/touraments: Third at Torrey Pines, 2nd at Quail Hollow, 5th at Congressional, 5th at the PGA. Glover has made drastic improvements in 2009, playing himself into my top-25.

East Lake Prediction: Glover’s improvements maybe over his head, but it doesn’t look to me like it was all that unreasonable. Expect a minor regression next year from Glover, but I don’t see why he can’t keep up his level of play. Glover will beat Cabrera this week in a mythical major champions showdown.
Line to win: 125-1

21. Stewart Cink
How he got here: Broke everyone’s heart when he annihilated Tom Watson in a playoff at the Open Championship. Other than the Claret Jug it’s been a rather dissappointing season for Cink, who was otherwise nowhere close to his sneaky good performance in 2008. Cink was one around the top-ten last year, but probably sits around 75th or so this season. Given the Open, I don’t think too many people would say Cink was better last season.

East Lake Prediction: I’m pretty sure Cink is a member at East Lake, so he should be pretty familiar with it, but he hasn’t finished in the top third of the field in his last three outings here. If Cink wasn’t a Major Champion, and was a few years younger, I might consider him, but as it stands he should be pretty overrated.
Line to win: 100-1

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