THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE PUTTS FALL

It seems that Tiger has regained his form from 2008 over the course of the last couple months, which could be a scary proposition for the rest of the field.

The difference of course between his wins and his “terrible” performances has been putting. When they all fall as they did this week, at Bridgestone and Warwick Hills, Tiger has been unbeatable. He has been over 4.5 strokes per round better than the field average for those three tournaments, a level of performance that equates to winning about 75% of the time.

In the PGA, Barclays and DB Championship, where he so often appeared frustrated on the greens, Tiger was “only” roughly 3.2 strokes per round better than the field average. That terrible level of play equates to winning about 32% of the time.

All in all, Tiger has played right back to his 2008 level over this stretch, which means he should be winning about 52% of the tournaments he enters against an average PGA Tour field.

I’ll be interested to see if Tiger opens at -110 for the Tour Championship.

The Pete Carroll School of Golf
Tiger got criticized, rightly so for playing so conservatively at Hazeltine. Well you know what, in Saturday’s third round, he didn’t do anything stupid, but he damn well didn’t settle for the middle of the green. The result a course-record 62, which meant he probably could have won yesterday with just a 5-iron and putter.

That’s the point. Tiger shouldn’t do anything unreasonable, he shouldn’t take needless risks over hazards, but if he is 130 yards away with wedge in his hands he needs to be looking to jar it. On Saturday, Tiger never took an incredibly risky shot, but he never backed off, either. Course record. Easy win.

Sometimes I say something right
From here.

Tiger is coming back to courses he has played before and I would bet there will be a lot less of those misread gestures* that he keeps making. If that is the case expect him to make everything one of these next three weeks and run away with a tournament.

FedEx Cup Rankings
fedexranks
Solely on FedEx Cup performance. If Furyk didn’t get a stupid 4 strokes worth of penalty shots in the Barclays I’m pretty sure his play would be good enough to be second.

2-yr Rankings
wgr091309

Looking Ahead
Not really sure where to go at the Tour Championship. AK somehow missed out on getting there and he probably would have been a strong lean. I have other strong leans, but looking at the prices my numbers spit out, I can’t really see them being value. Keep in mind that even if these are the best 30 players(they aren’t…YANG!) its still much harder to win against the 125 best players simply because there isn’t that much difference between 2 and 125.
tourchampguesses

Keep an eye out for my look at meaningful past form, sometime next week.

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