Steelers: Ranking these teams is going to be pretty hard at least for 1-2. Pittsburgh might be better than the Ravens, but it is very close. What Pittsburgh is not, is a hands down favorite to win the AFC North, let alone the AFC or Super Bowl. They are nowhere close to the best team in the AFC behind the Patriots and Chargers, at least. Roethlisburger has to be the most overrated player at the most(maybe second most) overrated position in football. As long as you are paying for a Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh has to be a great fade.
Ravens: Baltimore was almost as good as Pittsburgh last year in DVOA and actually outscored their opponents by more, but an 0-3 record against the Steelers covers that up quite nicely. Baltimore is always solid where it matters most and Flacco should progress a little bit this season, but don’t expect the offense to revolve around him. Baltimore is probably more value on division, but don’t expect them to be terribly underrated.
Browns: Nothing screams potentially dangerous to me like a “failed” coach coming in and a quarterback controversy. The Browns won’t be good by any stretch of the imagination, but they shouldn’t be as bad as everyone thinks. I’ll be testing out this theory in week 1.
Bengals: Who cares? They suck and have enough flashy players that score a lot of points that I probably won’t be backing or fading them much, unless they start 4-0 or something.
VERDICT: Steelers are as good a fade as any, Baltimore is probably overvalued as well, love the Browns for wagering purposes, and I don’t care too much about Cincy.