I’m not quite sure why it took me so long to compare this other than me being lazy, but I finally took a look at my 1-yr, (almost) 2yrs and Vegas lines taken from 5dimes.
What I found out was not really all that surprising. My rolling 1-year estimates were pretty close, but not quite as good as the almost 2-year numbers. Overall, when taking out the juice from the 5dimes lines, which was pretty low, here is how they fared:
Not surprisingly, both of these were really close to the Vegas line, but the 2-yr numbers were a bit closer and a lower standard deviation of misses. I think the obvious answer is that 2 years is a better time to determine the overall quality of golfer and eliminate fluky occurances like Vijay winning two playoff events in a row.
Picks coming later…