ONE YEAR, TWO YEARS AND VEGAS

I’m not quite sure why it took me so long to compare this other than me being lazy, but I finally took a look at my 1-yr, (almost) 2yrs and Vegas lines taken from 5dimes.

What I found out was not really all that surprising. My rolling 1-year estimates were pretty close, but not quite as good as the almost 2-year numbers. Overall, when taking out the juice from the 5dimes lines, which was pretty low, here is how they fared:
averagemisses
Not surprisingly, both of these were really close to the Vegas line, but the 2-yr numbers were a bit closer and a lower standard deviation of misses. I think the obvious answer is that 2 years is a better time to determine the overall quality of golfer and eliminate fluky occurances like Vijay winning two playoff events in a row.

Here are my 10 biggest 2-year under-estimations:
2yrvalue

10 biggest 2yr over-estimations:
2yrnotvalue

10 biggest 1yr under-estimations:
1yrvalue

10 biggest 1yr over-estimations:
1yrnotvalue

Picks coming later…

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1 Comment

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One response to “ONE YEAR, TWO YEARS AND VEGAS

  1. I obviously messed up on those last two charts. It should be yearly pct, and yearly line.

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