For these guys they either have played above their potential or under their potential, but I don’t quite think it is that easy

Phil Mickelson
Padraig Harrington
Vijay Singh
Henrik Stenson

These guys have all played below their 08 performance. In Stenson’s case, he has been much less consistent this year, but since his better performances have generally been in bigger events so its not like your getting a bargain on him.

Singh has played below his potential, but I think his last year numbers were a bit inflated by two strong weeks in the fed ex cup. I would make the case that he is really overrated, but if you include injury factors his actual level of play is probably higher than 09 performance, although less than 08.

Mickelson and Harrington have underperformed from last season for sure, but you’re paying for their best possible performance just because of the names. I would not say their automatic fades, just because they should improve a little bit from what they have done so far, but still I would be skeptical that either one could return to their respective 08 form–(Mickleson 1 w/o Tiger, Harrington 5th)

Hunter Mahan
Lucas Glover
Sean O’Hair
Nick Watney
Kevin Na

Guys with similar ages as Kim, Sergio, Scott and Villegas, who I think are real talents but likely are playing somewhat over their heads this season. Kim, Garcia, Scott and Villegas all had probably their best years in 2008 and fell back a little bit in 2009.

I’m not saying these guys don’t have the potential to be great players, but it seems like if you really like these players you should be judging their performance more on a two year average than just what has happened this year alone.

Again, improvement through the late 20s and early 30s is to be expected but these jumps are probably a bit unrealistic. (Tiger not included in rankings b/c too few rounds in 2008)

Glover- 89(2008) to 7(2009)
Watney- 75 to 10.
Mahan- 20 to 2.
O’Hair- 64 to 19.
Na- 94 to 25.

I’m not willing to call these guys bad players, I just think they might have a bit of regression. (Na top-50, Watney, Glover, O’Hair top-20, Mahan back towards 10) You’ll have to decide if those minor regressions make it worth it on these players.



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2 responses to “A WORD OF WARNING

  1. Looking forward to your “Undeniably Awesome” post tomorrow on Steve Marino.

  2. Alex Noren will be a part of it, too.

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