Just an obvious obvious decision for me this week. My thought process was literally “NOREN, NOREN, check my numbers, double check the course history, NOREN, NOREN, NOREN.”
Noren is arguably the best player in the field with the difference between him Thomas Levet and Richard Green not being that much. After that, there is a definite drop off to the rest of the crappy field. This is just a terrible field and Noren has a great history at the KLM Open. My numbers say 27-1 and the FAVORITE, plus I love Alex Noren, so it was an easy decision.
I don’t know why you would look any further than Noren, as he easily fits all the criteria for my under rated golfers, but if you want to look at another player, here are my straight numbers for the top-25:
A few more leans on this side of the pond this week.
Charley Hoffman: This was all Jonny’s idea, which I’m guessing he got from looking at my numbers. Looking back, it seems to make sense but I just have too many harsh feelings against the mullet. I’m pretty sure Charley was playing over his head earlier in the year, which may give him too much credit. At least that is what I am telling myself. If you ever wanted to take Chucky, though, 3 straight missed cuts make this a pretty appealing time.
Spencer Levin: I keep pimping Spencer on a hunch, but I’m not really ready to act on it until the fall series. I think 190-1 is value, but I also think there are better options this week.
D.J. Trahan: 2nd hardest player to pass. If this wasn’t the “Wyndham Championship” it would probably be very hard for me to pass D.J.
Steve Marino: My original logic was wait for next week when Marino will compete against a stronger field at a course that suits his game more. Actually that applies to Boston, too. Now that I think about it, I’ll probably be on Marino for the next three weeks assuming he doesn’t catch fire. The “Marino will have more value next week” line of thinking wasn’t enough for me to risk a breakthrough win here or pass a good bet, so:
Marino win +8000(.24)
Marino top-5 +1400(.66)
Noren win +5250(.37)
Noren top-5 +1000(.90)
No leans in the KLM, because I only care about one player in the field.
At Sedgefield, I came up with this list:
Garcia +120 v. Glover
DiMarco -110 v. Duval
David Toms +120 v. Clark
Chris Riley -140 v. Adam Scott
Hoffman +100 v. Warren
If this was the Travelers Championship(week after US Open) I would be all over DiMarco, but I think the Duval craze has flared down a bit since he has returned to his crappy ways after Bethpage.
Riley is not a lean, just straight funny. Chris Riley. -140. Adam Scott.
Toms and Clark are probably even, and Clark played well here last year, but I’m not ready to concede perpetually underrated Clark is worth fading with a major champion. I think Toms is value, but I’m not willing to take a chance.
That leaves Hoffman and Garcia. I mentioned last week how underrated Lucas Glover seemed to be, even while contending at Hazeltine. I think that has changed. Glover is certainly a very good player, but seems to be getting attention this week and as a current top-10 golfer is probably playing over his head*.
*Aside: If Fred Couples doesn’t take Glover and Mahan for the President’s Cup he is a moron.
On the other side of it, Garcia is playing under his potential, has been TERRIBLE on the PGA Tour and is a huge cry baby. I hate to go against Glover, but I think this should make the cut.
The other match-up I considered is Hoffman v. Warren. Hoffman is a lot stronger overall than Warren, they are similarly aged(relates to potential) and the only noticeable difference is two top-20 finishes in a row for Warren vs. 3 straight missed cuts for Hoffman in tougher events. Tough to keep that one out as well.
Garcia +120 v. Glover(1)
Hoffman +100 v. Warren(1)
Garica +115 v. Glover(1)-rd1 only
Hoffman -105 v. Warren(1)-rd1 only
Streak for the Cash:
The early match-up is pretty dead even, although Byrd is a stronger player. Giving up the half shot over 9 holes makes that almost 50-50. In the afternoon, given the tie I have 55% to Garcia, although he is an underdog online. At 5, they are both probably passes.