I just started looking at the weekly golf stuff, but first I saw the Tiger 2010 major prop. Wasting time is probably a good description of this prop. Given the almost 1 year waiting period, the only things potentially worthwhile is 3 or 4 majors and 14-1 for the grand slam seems ridiculous.
Assuming Tiger Woods is around 35% to win each major, just based on his most recent price at Hazeltine, that puts 3 majors at 8-1 using a binomial distribution. The Grand Slam is 65-1. I guess 3 majors is the way to go coming off Tiger’s “choke” at Hazeltine, but I’d rather just put my money in a bank for a year than take the 2% +EV.
Now there is also the chance that Tiger is actually Higher considering his domination of Pebble Beach and St. Andrews in the past. I’ll give him a 45% to win those majors, though I doubt it is worth that much. Using the binomial distribution, that puts some value on 2 or 3 majors. Not totally surprising considering how Tiger is going to be viewed coming off the loss to Yang, but I don’t think worth the time value of money.
Wyndham and KLM Picks up later.