6:54: Mitch Lowe has missed the Cut.
3:52: I almost feel dirty rooting for Tiger, but its always fun to see him make every 5 foot putt in my position. I’m also rooting for Mahan and have a special soft spot in my heart for Alvaro Quiros. I like Quiros style for an above average golfer. He goes at every pin with a short iron. More and more, I’m coming to think that’s how you have to do it. Sure. you’ll give up a few shots and occasionally shoot 78, but a talented player will make more birdies when being aggresive than bogeys and if it falls into place you can win. Quiros has his share of poor performances, but he is immensely talented and has 3 European Tour wins.
3:20: Catching my first PGA action of the day. Should be a good afternoon with Tiger getting a lot of coverage and Hopefully Mahan, too. Mitch Lowe, not so much.
7:00: I won’t be updating this until at least Mitch Lowe tees off, but I have heard Rene Russo did some good work on him last night. Sadly, Cheech was left out in the rain.
I just thought I would clarify my emerging position on Tiger. Tiger -120 does not seem contrarian at all. It probably isn’t. I’m just going to say my three metrics(Tiger worst possible, Tiger average, Tiger max) all support this as a +EV decision. If the books give me that then I will take it. I honestly thought this line would be -150 at least. Tiger has won 40% of the tournaments he has played in for the past 4 years. Leading after one round, I assume it gets even higher.
Normally that is the kind of logic that will get you in trouble, but despite that my numbers unequivocally say that Tiger is +EV. Is that enough to make a bet? I don’t know, that is your call, but I think Tiger is a singular talent that will rewrite the record books and is not properly accounted for right now in Vegas. That might seem strange, but with an objective measure I wholeheartedly believe Tiger is less overrated than Phil, Paddy and Westwood. I don’t know what this means in the scale of things but Tiger is the best player to ever play the game of golf, maybe the most dominant of any sport. It’s surprising how many people would disagree with that.
Again, taking Tiger is not something I would advise, because I’m not 99% sure that it is the right thing to do, but I think it is a lot better than the Phil, Paddy, Westy trio. Make the call on your own, just know that I love Tiger and the way he plays compared to Phil and others.
Also know that I’ll probably be fading Tiger from here on out.