I guess that’s what I call someone who I think has a pretty fair price. All these guys fall within -.005 and +.005 in the EV department based strictly off my numbers.
I hate to do two things in life: waste time and curse on this blog. However, I broke both of those rules when looking at Mitch Fucking Lowe(Congrats to ML, you are very high on the google search for “Mitch Lowe golfer.” I hope his mom is proud when she finds that mid-Thursday afternoon trying to find out what Mitch shot.)
I didn’t have time to check this morning, but I’m pretty sure that line has to be a mistake. At least I hope. If not, pray for a Roy McAvoyian performance(there is no water on Hazeltine’s 18th).
Okay so 5dimes has 1000-1 on all these guys. They definitely aren’t worth betting but the ~17000-1 my numbers say isn’t as far off as it looks going by percent. If you want to be an idiot and your club pro is playing in the tournament, dropping 10 bucks on him isn’t the dumbest thing you could do all week, although its a real longshot and -EV that he wins.
I’m still hesitant to win bring up Martin’s name after he decided to win in France and Scotland back-to-back instead of Augusta and Ponte Vedra Beach. As alway Kaymer is a solid up-and-coming player, but with this field assembled 125-1 is a pretty sharp price.
Adam Scott is definitely playing well below his potential. That being said, With his famous name if Vegas thought he had any chance of winning this tournament there would not be a price like 200-1 out there. Sorry, Adam.
Miguel Angel Jimenez:
I’m pretty sure MAJ played in the second-to-last pairing on Sunday at Firestone and had all of two televised shots. They weren’t live. MAJ is better than everyone expects, but the numbers say small -EV and I can’t see the upside.
Is it possible that Stenson is actually the poor man’s Angel Cabrera. A month ago, I would have put it the other way around, but right now Cabrera may be better.
If I was Ben Curtis, I would be legitimately pissed that I always get thrown in as a random major winner, while Trevor Immelman sucks. Trevor Immelman was +105 against Thongchai Jaidee last week. Curtis is good. Immelman is not.
O’Hair is definitely among the best 20 players in the world, but 95-1 is just a little too steep, although he possesses the talent and upside that make me think he will be a major winner at some point.
Allenby is always underrated, but for his part in breaking up the Tiger-Padraig head-to-head showdown at Firestone I think he is just overpriced at 95-1.
Ross deciding to show up in some of the few events that American fans actually care about leaves him a little bit higher rated in Vegas than some of his comparable counterparts. I wouldn’t be surprised though if Ross contends this week.
If they cut down all the trees at Hazeltine and replace the bunkers with pot bunkers I will take a look at Chris Wood.
John is apparently still alive after chocking all over the course for the final 36 at Warwick Hills. I’ll look at anyone that swings like Hogan, but his low standard deviation suggests he is -EV.
Verplank is another guy that is much better than people think, but before you go crazy find me the upside on this pick.
Leonard was the 54-hole leader last time the PGA visited Hazeltine before falling back and giving way to Rich Beem(speaking of crappy major champions, Trevor) and Tiger. In the end, 4 rounds of golf 7 years ago are probably meaningless and 125-1 is too little to get back for taking a shot on Leonard.
Nick Dougherty, Justin Rose:
It’s debatable what to expect from these two Englishmen. Personally, I hate them both, but the prices, while -EV, aren’t that crazy.
I’ve got a joke for you: Thongchai Jaidee was -135 against Trevor Immelman last week. Yeah, that played out a lot better with Degenerate Gamblers over the age of 40.
The Swede, who played well at Bethpage, could be a pretty good look at 450-1. He is the 68th best player in the world, but a low standard deviation makes this one -EV, if you care about that. Definitely better options this week, but you could do worse, too.
Ryo has tons of talent, but I think he is still in the “I’m happy to make the cut at a major” stage of his career.
Is it too late to go back and give the 2003 PGA Championship to Chad Campbell?
I’m saying small -EV on Ollie, but I like his game. I think he pops up near the top of the leaderboard in some form at a premier US Event at some point. With better options in the field, I’m not saying it is this week.
Somewhat reasonable price for a pretty good European player. Again, if this course plays so long that it takes the advantage away from the long hitters G-Mac is the type of player that can step up and compete.
Part 2 coming up later…