BREAKING DOWN THE FIELD: POTENTIALLY UNDERRATED

Mitch Lowe:
I’m pretty sure this is the most preposterous golf line I have ever seen. Mitch Lowe is an assistant pro in California that hasn’t made a cut on the PGA or Nationwide Tour in this decade. To have his line against Quiros open up at -130/+100 is a complete joke. It’s slid up and it will continue to do so, but this is just a completely ridiculous line. Maybe Lowe will win this week going off at 1000-1, but I don’t think I will be fooling around with him and Quiros. That is just too damn confusing.

I said it before with Tom Watson competing at the British Open, the odds of one of the random guys competing at the PGA Championship are not that good. Consider that 80 Club pros have teed it up at the past four PGA Championship and 7 made the cut, including none last year. That is about 8 percent, which adjusts to about 1.1 standard deviations worse than PGA tour average using the made cut percentage. 5dimes is not trying to trap anyone, they are just wrong.

While the PGA Tour may draw a lot more action, this isn’t exactly NFL Sunday. Most people don’t know who Alvaro Quiros is. 5dimes messed up, and I’m pretty sure they meant to put someone like J.B. Holmes in his place. Honestly, trying to guess this line is a little hard because it’s all about adjusting for a guy that has played about 10 rounds on tour in the past 10 years. But it is safe to say this should be at least -325, but most likely even higher. After looking more into the club pro’s I could even see Quiros with a 85-90% chance of winning this particular match-up.

Does that mean it is a gaurantee, or lock? Absolutely not, but it is fair to say that Quiros is probably about 4-5 shots per round better than Lowe on average. It is not surprising that 5dimes messed up, after all I hit a Kenny Perry top-5 at 4-1 when he was the best player in the field and led by two shots after the first round. What is a little ridiculous is how stupid they seem to be in responding to it.

Alvaro Quiros
Yup, I think he is underrated, too. However, the Mitch Lowe fiasco has scared me off anything related to Quiros. Definitely inconsistent at times in his early career, but he has a ton of talent a streaky putter and can absolutely bomb it. 275-1 is a pretty good offering.

Kenny Perry:
Perry has definitely played better than his 66-1 price would indicate and it would be nice to see Kenny win a major, but I can’t see the upside of backing a 49-year-old popular American.

David Toms:
Same deal as Kenny. Toms is a former PGA Champion and fairly popular among the middle aged white guys who follow golf, but the outlook on Toms going forward can’t be as good as it looking back.

Paul Casey:
Not backing a guy with a strained intercostal. In fact, that is probably the only reason my numbers show value on Casey this week. I have to figure he is less than 125-1 to win.

Mathew Goggin:
After contending at Turnberry, he could definitely surprise people who don’t realize how good he is at Hazeltine. The problem for me is I get a little tired of pimping a guy like Goggin every week.

Brian Gay:
I guess after Brian refused to play good golf last week this is a pretty good spot if you really like him. I don’t really see the need to take a two-time winner on tour this year.

Camilo Villegas:
I have him up with Mahan as my two best looks so far. 90-1 is a really generous offering for a young talented player that hits a ton of greens and finished in the top-5 last year. Those putts that Villegas missed last week, probably won’t hurt as much on a course set-up that should seperate players more from tee-to-green.

Kevin Na:
First round leader, anyone? I still can’t knock Na’s game and he really turned it on over the weekend for a top-5 finish in Reno-Tahoe. I think Na has to go on a shortlist of contenders priced at over 400-1 as my numbers have him around 67-1 although that is due mainly to a high standard deviation.

Jim Furyk:
Second most undervalued player in the field, but I don’t think this is a good bet. Furyk is popular already and I don’t know if we can necessarily say that his future is necessarily as bright as his past.

Steve Stricker:
My numbers say a 4% edge on Stricker makes him the most valuable player in the field. Again, I can make a strong case, and truly believe, that over the past year, Steve Stricker has been the second best golfer in the world. But, where is the upside on this? It’s not like people don’t know he is playing well, or he is a young gun. Stricker has probably played over his head a bit so far this season, and he I expect him to fall off a bit, although still remain a strong golfer in the future.

All kinds of craziness planned for tomorrow.

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