Like I said, one of the best tournaments of the year with arguably the strongest field. Should be fun.
I think my list contained Jim Furyk and Hunter Mahan and Camilo Villegas. I can knock all those players.
Furyk has a strong course history, which I am almost positive you are not paying for. Like I said earlier this week, he doesn’t get the attention he deserves for being a fantastic player. That being said, at the age of 39 I’m not really sure what makes this a great pick going forward. Fair, yes, huge overlay, I don’t think so.
Mahan and Villegas both have the talent and the upside and are really good players. However, in Mahan’s case, I was afraid people had realized this until I saw 45-1 at 5dimes. That is a fantastic price, unfortunately it is for to winning the PGA Championship(glad I write out my logic first)*. My numbers say 28-1 for Mahan, so 30-1 is just a little to tight for the doubts I have in my mind.
*Aside: 45-1 has to be a pretty good price for Mahan to win the US PGA, right? The field isn’t going to be that much deeper than this week. I’d rather wait to find out, though.
That leaves Villegas. I wasn’t entirely convinced this is what I wanted to do until I saw 75-1. Just a monster price for a guy with his talent. As always I’m scared about his seemingly erratic game, but he is hitting a lot of greens this year and has posted high finished at some classical tight layouts like Bellerive, Oakland Hills, East Lake and Turnberry.
The other concern with Villegas is his absurd run from the PGA last year to the end of the playoffs might unfairly dilute his numbers. So I went back took out those events and Villegas drops down to 66-1ish. That is good enough for me.
Camilo to win +7500(.26)
Camilo top-5 +1000(.9)(Ties count, Bodog)
My list was really this long,
Furyk -110 v. Retief Goosen
Padraig Harrington +150 v. Luke Donald
Paddy +115 v. Justin Rose
Paddy +135 v. Ian Poulter
Paddy -105 v. Martin Kaymer
Thongchai Jaidee -135 v. Trevor Immelman
Lee Westwood +100 v. Phil Mickelson
Brian Gay -110 v. Angel Cabrera
Rory McIlroy -110 v. Ernie Els
Gonzalo Fernandez Castano -105 v. Nathan Green
Donald -115 v. Ross Fisher
Zach Johnson -115 v. Adam Scott
Justin Leonard -115 v. Cabrera
I am immediately crossing Jaidee, Westwood and Paddy(Donald, Kaymer) off the list. In addition I don’t feel like laying bigger numbers on Donald, Johnson, GFC or Leonard.
Gay over Cabrera seems pretty solid to me, but then I also have to consider Gay at the same price against Rose. I’d rather fade Rose’s nice course history and terrible overall play than Cabrera’s roller coaster of mediocrity.
The Paddy dilemma continues and I’d love to take him against Rose and Poulter, but come Sunday afternoon I’d be okay if he won those match-ups and I wasn’t backing him. In other words, I don’t feel like I need to do that.
McIlroy and Els seem pretty even to me, which makes that a lot easier to pass at -110. It was close, but I think that is the last one out.
Here’s what makes the cut:
Furyk -110 over Goosen(4)
Gay -110 over Rose(1)
Furyk -110 over Goosen(2)
Camilo Villegas +205 v. Els/Mickleson(1)
Petterson/Garcia +155 v. Woods(1)
Villegas is a perfect situation to take advantage of an underrated player against two overrated ones. In the other one, there had to be some way to fade Tiger. My numbers show the edge on Sergio by himself and Sergio/Petterson is about the same, so I went with the combo for potential sanity’s sake.
As far as the props go, none of them seem glaringly better than what I have above, so I’m just going to lay off those.
Legends Reno-Tahoe Open
Why did I have four solid feelings on this tournament?
I felt good about Kevin Na, Francesco Molinari, Charl Schwartzel and Spencer Levin. I think any of them are solid picks, but I couldn’t chose between them and I am certainly not taking all four on this event. I’m content to pass.