Here are the groups and my numbers:
For the Aussie’s I don’t think there is anyone worth playing. Sure, Scott and Appleby seem to be pretty overrated, but Scott has clearly been playing below his level for awhile now and people aren’t lining up behind Allenby week in and week out, though he does have a strong history at Firestone. I’m not sure Goggin’s worth it right now and the edge on Allenby is small with not a whole upside.
In Europe, there are a wealth of strong players in this group. It’s funny but you could basically look at this as “to win the Reno-Tahoe Open” because the highest ranked European will probably be about the same in standardized scores as the winner of the Reno-Tahoe Open, meaning they will have to finish in the top 3-4.
Not surprisingly with high finishes here and a strong last few outings(neither of which I account for), Westwood is the most overrated player in the group. The only notable +EV’s are Quiros and Garcia. Quiros is good for sure, but I’m not sold on his value at a tight tree-lined course. Garcia on the other hand, has a series of awful results this year, particularly on the PGA Tour, but is still the best in this group by my metric. I think that is a decent option that I will consider later.
The Rest of the World, is probably the best betting environment of these groups. First, you have defending-champion Vijay Singh “who always plays well this time of year.” Then, you have Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, who are probably two of the most overrated players in the field. My numbers back this up pretty well. I really only think there is one player to consider in this group, though and that is Camilo Villegas. He’s young, with lots of talent and upside and I’m not quite sure people realize just how good he is. I want to further look into this first, though.
Finally, for the Red, White and Blue the usual cast of Mickleson, Love(absurd history at Firestone) and unusual cast of Cink(former champ, Open champ) seem to be pretty overrated. If my personal feelings were to be involved I would just fire away on Furyk, Stricker and Mahan then call it a night. I’m not so sure those are great bets, though considering my numbers consistently value those players higher than Vegas does.
Later tonight, I’ll be looking at Camilo, Sergio, Furyk, Stricker and Mahan for sure, but I have no idea if they will make the final cut.