EARLY FOOTBALL PREVIEW: SEC

Might be better to call this brainstorming.

Below is a chart that shows net points and net yards from all conference games last season:
secfootball
I’m not sure what purpose this really serves other than a good jumping off point. First, Florida was clearly the best team in the SEC last year, despite Alabama’s undefeated regular season record. This was pretty clear when Florida was laying a touchdown in the SEC Title game and they are big favorites to win the SEC this year as well. -300 to win the conference and -600 to win the division seem a little steep, though. That should create value elsewhere.

Ideas:
Ole Miss: After Florida, it was debateable whether Georgia, Ole Miss or Alabama were really the second best team in the conference. Of course Ole Miss didn’t have the luck that Alabama had, except in the Florida game, but they were a pretty good football team last season.

They also have a pretty beneficial schedule this season facing Alabama and LSU at home and avoiding Florida all together. In addition they host Tennessee, and go on the road to take on SEC powerhouses Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Auburn and Mississippi St.

The problem I see with Ole Miss is that they lost a few key members of each line that could have a bigger impact than most people would expect.

Georgia:
I really like Georgia this season. They notably lost Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford from last year’s team, but they keep together enough of the rest of the starters.

It might seem hard to replace those big names, but Georgia keeps enough in tact on the offensive and defensive lines that it should mitigate those factors more than people expect.

In my opinion, Georgia is a no go for any BCS futures because they have a brutal out of conference schedule. However, they definitely intrigue me at 7-1ish and 15-1ish to win the division and conference, respectively.

In the end, football season is still a long way off and there is a lot of public opinion that I still want to here before putting anything in. These seem pretty borderline now, but we’ll see what happens.

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1 Comment

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One response to “EARLY FOOTBALL PREVIEW: SEC

  1. Forgot to mention, Mississippi St. will probably be god awful this year, so I’m not sure there will be value on any futures, but I fully expect to back them at least half a dozen times.

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