1:35: Cink should be a -165/165 favorite based on my numbers, using Watson as the tour average for less than 20 rounds. Adjusting it slightly based on what I have seen from the books, -148/148 seems like a pretty good estimate considering 5dimes has -153/133.

1:02: No more Odds for regulation. It just gets too weird to use the same spreadsheet for a small amount of holes.

Before Westwood’s birdie on 17.

Hole 17: 4 eagles, 31 birdies, 25 pars, 8 bogeys today.
Hole 18: 5 birdies, 41 pars, 17 bogeys.

12:48: Tom Watson winning would just be incredible. I have no idea what the true odds of that happening really were, but it was a lot longer than 1500-1. A lot. Just unbelievable if it happens.

12:41: Dare I say, with Westwood a long par attempt left, Tom Watson might be the favorite for the first time all week. Even the worst assumptions on Watson and over 3 holes there is not much of a difference between two players.

12:40:Chris Wood is getting a lot closer to a playoff.

12:30: How big a miss was that Par putt for Westwood. Take a look at the differences in percentages if he had made it(PAR) and missed it(BOGEY, he actually did):

12:23: Westwood takes a one shot lead, but with a tough up and down coming…

12:15: Apparently being a hole ahead and in with par gives Westwood a solid edge.

12:00:Changing the format with half the players off the course it is easier to calculate this way. The percentage is the chance of shooting that final score or better.
I think that still sets Westwood as a small favorite over Goggin.

11:40: Matt Goggin is not a surprise contender. Sure he is a few spots behind Westwood in my rankings, but really there isn’t much difference, except in perception. On average, the difference between them is about .25 strokes per round. Not much.

11:30: Not counting Chris Wood’s last birdie.


10:45:Westwood for Eagle.

10:32:I think this is right. 27% chance posting 279 wins. 5% chance that posting 280 wins. That leaves leader in the clubhouse Soren Hansen at .2% to win.

10:25:We’re drifting towards 279 as your winning score. The leaders are sucking.

10:21: An eight will do that. Ladies and Gentleman, Chris Wood your Open Championship favorite.

10:00 Chris Wood is on fire right now, holing everything. 19-1 seems like a good price on that one EDIT: Fisher drops to +156 with that bogey.

9:35: Fisher holes out for birdie 2-under through 2, while Watson bogeys one.
Don’t have money their but Fisher +170 looks like a pretty good live option at WSEX right now.


Only playing Goggin at +130 to make the top-5, which had the best edge by my numbers, once I knew I wanted to play Goggin. A few other pairings are attractive(Furyk/Goose, Kuboya/Vijay) but I’ll leave those alone for now. Same deal as yesterday, LIVE ODDS updated every 30 minutes or so, once my hungover self wakes up.



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  1. Eric

    It’s gonna be funny when Stewart Cink wins this thing and ABC has shown about 7 of his shots.

  2. He’s got a really good shot right now. Still watching the BBC feed online, but he’s not getting much love there either.

  3. That Westwood eagle hurts, although it will be interesting to see Lee with a lead coming down the stretch.

  4. Contest-wise, It’s looking like Goggin, Westwood and Johnson/Stenson are going to be the group winners. They were popular picks this week so we could have some high scores.

  5. Eric

    So far, ABC has managed to show every shot from Cink in this playoff. I’m a little surprised.

  6. Yeah, the combination of no commercials, no Rick Reilly, actual golf and not feeling like moving, meant I stuck with the BBC feed I found online. They dominated ABC’s coverage.

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