1:35: Cink should be a -165/165 favorite based on my numbers, using Watson as the tour average for less than 20 rounds. Adjusting it slightly based on what I have seen from the books, -148/148 seems like a pretty good estimate considering 5dimes has -153/133.
1:02: No more Odds for regulation. It just gets too weird to use the same spreadsheet for a small amount of holes.
Hole 17: 4 eagles, 31 birdies, 25 pars, 8 bogeys today.
Hole 18: 5 birdies, 41 pars, 17 bogeys.
12:48: Tom Watson winning would just be incredible. I have no idea what the true odds of that happening really were, but it was a lot longer than 1500-1. A lot. Just unbelievable if it happens.
12:41: Dare I say, with Westwood a long par attempt left, Tom Watson might be the favorite for the first time all week. Even the worst assumptions on Watson and over 3 holes there is not much of a difference between two players.
12:23: Westwood takes a one shot lead, but with a tough up and down coming…
12:00:Changing the format with half the players off the course it is easier to calculate this way. The percentage is the chance of shooting that final score or better.
I think that still sets Westwood as a small favorite over Goggin.
11:40: Matt Goggin is not a surprise contender. Sure he is a few spots behind Westwood in my rankings, but really there isn’t much difference, except in perception. On average, the difference between them is about .25 strokes per round. Not much.
10:32:I think this is right. 27% chance posting 279 wins. 5% chance that posting 280 wins. That leaves leader in the clubhouse Soren Hansen at .2% to win.
10:25:We’re drifting towards 279 as your winning score. The leaders are sucking.
Only playing Goggin at +130 to make the top-5, which had the best edge by my numbers, once I knew I wanted to play Goggin. A few other pairings are attractive(Furyk/Goose, Kuboya/Vijay) but I’ll leave those alone for now. Same deal as yesterday, LIVE ODDS updated every 30 minutes or so, once my hungover self wakes up.