RD 3 RUNNING ODDS: THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

Final Odds to win from Round 3:
3RDFINALODDS
Goggin is a very good player, without wins, I don’t see any reason why he and Fisher shouldn’t be the close favorites here.

2:10:
After Watson’s last birdie:
210

2:00:
2

1:40:
140
Includes Watson bogey at 15, Marino triple and Retief’s Eagle. Got to love how Marino throws away almost everything he gained back on one hole. I still maintain he is playing pretty well today, just has gotten no good breaks at all. I bet his comments will be along the line of this is the highest I could have shot today.

1:13:
110
Goggin is now the favorite.

1:00:
1
Does not include Westwood’s recent birdie.

12:30:
1230
Minus a few stupid mistakes hitting into bunkers Marino has actually played pretty well. Not terribly surprising considering he is a good player.

12:05:
12inrunn
Through the leader’s front nine. Jim Furyk is quietly lurking.

11:45:
1145inrun

11:30: Definite turning point in the course, getting to the 12th tee. First 11 Holes played at +3.2 over par. Last 7 played to and average of +.82 over par yesterday.

11:10:
1115inrun
Goosen is in the process of butchering an easy par-5 so he is not as big a favorite as this indicates. Bryce Molder’s -3 is looking really good right now.

10:45:
1045inrunner

10:10: Thru the leader’s first hole:
aaainrunning10am
Goosen is now the favorite. Goosen has seen the biggest improvement. Vijay Singh has fallen the furthest, although the small amount of holes they have played probably skews it a bit.

9:15: Not surprisingly, the odds haven’t changed too much at the top. Biggest movers so far, McDowell, Stenson and Jaidee.

2:00 AM: We will see how this turns out. No idea when I get up in the morning, but at that point, I plan on updating every half hour. Here are the picks:

Furyk -125 v. Goosen(1)
Villegas +120 v. Westwood(1)
Steve Marino Top-10 +105(1)
Steve Marino Top-5 +300(1)
Steve Marino to win +2200(.43)

I thought about a few others, but drunk decisions are probably not good decisions. AM claims that the weather is going to be awful(he seems trustworthy on that matter) so I reworked my in-running odds on just today’s round. With 155 guys playing in very similar conditions I’m not sure I lose anything due to SSS, but I don’t fully trust these, so don’t go firing away on any live markets.
bopeninnersstart
A few others of note: Garcia is 2.65%(probably higher all things considered), Villegas is 3.31%, Furyk is at 3.7% and Stricker is at .69%.

I think yesterday will be the hardest that Turnberry plays, but assuming it plays equal to that 278(-2) is good enough for the win 279 gets a playoff. Logically, I think 276-278 is the winning score this week.

Anyone know of any books offering Live Odds? I’d love to be able to compare these to the Vegas prices.

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6 Comments

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6 responses to “RD 3 RUNNING ODDS: THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

  1. Note: European forecasting skill << North American forecasting skill. Should have a steady 10-20 mph wind and on and off rain. Sunday looks worse than today.

  2. honcho

    Daly’s going hunting after his round today, wanna join him?

  3. Dick Cheney certainly would have no excuse for shooting Daly today.

  4. The WSEX market is your best bet for live odds.

  5. dsw

    intertops will be offering live odds tomorrow…I’m sure they’ll be great. enjoy the blog, btw.

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