BRITISH OPEN ROUND 1 RECAP

britishoprd1
This is really setting up as a fantastic leaderboard. Camilo, Stricker, Furyk, Curtis and Woods could all be in the hunt on Sunday, which would be 5 out of my top-10 golfers.

I have those 5 as the top-5 contenders right now. I would be careful with my numbers though on some of the guys like Stricker who have an afternoon tee time. The weather is supposed to pick up and it could play harder in the afternoon.

For that reason, Tiger at 5-1 is a pretty absurd price. If it wasn’t -640 and I was afraid of laying that big of a number, I would easily take Tiger to not win right now. Facing the weather there is no way Tiger is close to a 17% chance to win right now.

I think Stricker is a pretty good option, although not as good as 6-1, but sitting on 55-1, and 8-1 top-5 there really isn’t a need to pile on. If I was going to place an outright bet I’m throwing Jim Furyk in bold letters. 17-1, for in my opinion the third best golfer in the world, with a favorable tee time is an absolute steal. I’ll take the safer, but still valuable road of going top-5 and top-10 on Furyk(I have +115 and +250 respectively).

180-1 is not much respect for Tom Watson, but it seems like a reasonable line. Setting him to the average of players who have compiled less than 20 rounds on the PGA Tour I get 250-1ish. Basically the same and about 5 strokes per round on average worse than Tiger.

Round2 plays:
Jim Furyk top-5 +400(1)
Jim Furyk top-10 +155(1)
Luke Donald +105 v. Angel Cabrera(2)
Mike Weir +130 v. Graeme McDowell(1)
Paul Casey +105 v. Lee Westwood(1)
Camilo Villegas +100 v. Graeme McDowell(1)
Sergio Garcia -110 v. Henrik Stenson(1)
Sean O’Hair -105 v. Vijay(1)

Forgot to check the tee times on Donald, probably wouldn’t have fired off a double on that. +105 seems like a pretty good price though.

Thought about Kenichi Kuboya -125 against Watson, but that probably wasn’t necessary. Also, Els +110 against Goosen is very attractive, but I’d rather wait for Goosen to shoot another good round then fade him on the weekend.

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7 Comments

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7 responses to “BRITISH OPEN ROUND 1 RECAP

  1. I got all the contest entries. Not going to bother to put them in until at least Saturday.

  2. Not that its going to matter in 5 hours, but you have odds on Cink?

  3. The current leader board is fucking tilting me to no end.

  4. 5 hours = 48 minutes.

  5. .47% on Cink, but probably higher because I have to believe he has played below his actual skill level in the past year.

  6. Cut will most likely fall at +4. The course is playing well over par today, and there are enough people on the course at 2 and 3 over that it should drop.

  7. Nevermind, its looking like 5 is good now.

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