I have those 5 as the top-5 contenders right now. I would be careful with my numbers though on some of the guys like Stricker who have an afternoon tee time. The weather is supposed to pick up and it could play harder in the afternoon.
For that reason, Tiger at 5-1 is a pretty absurd price. If it wasn’t -640 and I was afraid of laying that big of a number, I would easily take Tiger to not win right now. Facing the weather there is no way Tiger is close to a 17% chance to win right now.
I think Stricker is a pretty good option, although not as good as 6-1, but sitting on 55-1, and 8-1 top-5 there really isn’t a need to pile on. If I was going to place an outright bet I’m throwing Jim Furyk in bold letters. 17-1, for in my opinion the third best golfer in the world, with a favorable tee time is an absolute steal. I’ll take the safer, but still valuable road of going top-5 and top-10 on Furyk(I have +115 and +250 respectively).
180-1 is not much respect for Tom Watson, but it seems like a reasonable line. Setting him to the average of players who have compiled less than 20 rounds on the PGA Tour I get 250-1ish. Basically the same and about 5 strokes per round on average worse than Tiger.
Jim Furyk top-5 +400(1)
Jim Furyk top-10 +155(1)
Luke Donald +105 v. Angel Cabrera(2)
Mike Weir +130 v. Graeme McDowell(1)
Paul Casey +105 v. Lee Westwood(1)
Camilo Villegas +100 v. Graeme McDowell(1)
Sergio Garcia -110 v. Henrik Stenson(1)
Sean O’Hair -105 v. Vijay(1)
Forgot to check the tee times on Donald, probably wouldn’t have fired off a double on that. +105 seems like a pretty good price though.
Thought about Kenichi Kuboya -125 against Watson, but that probably wasn’t necessary. Also, Els +110 against Goosen is very attractive, but I’d rather wait for Goosen to shoot another good round then fade him on the weekend.