24. Retief Goosen
Vegas Odds: 40-1
Chance to win: 1.75%
My Field Ranking: 21/125
Goosen is in his 40’s, playing a lot better than last season, and on fire in his last three starts, although he has failed to close out wins. I think Goosen is the single most overrated player in the field right now.

23. Robert Allenby
Vegas Odds: 125-1
Chance to win: .83%
My Field Ranking: 17/125
Not surprisingly, Robert Allenby has a lot of high finishes at the British Open, but no wins. Seems like a microcasm of his PGA Tour career, in which he is winless since 2001, despite being one of the 20 best players in the world.

22. Ernie Els
Vegas Odds: 35-1
Chance to win: .88%
My Field Ranking: 20/125
In a “I would never bet on him kind of way” Ernie Els is probably the most underrated overrated player in the field. Els probably has the best history at the Open Championship of anyone in the field not named Tiger and I think people are overdoing the reports of his demise.

Off topic somewhat, but is Ernie Els the best player of the Tiger era besides Tiger? With 50+ worldwide wins(more than Phil, although less on the PGA Tour) and some incredible showdowns with Tiger(Kapalua Playoff, Playoff in Presidents Cup) I’d have to say that Els, not Mickleson, is the second best player of this generation.

21. Luke Donald
Vegas Odds: 100-1
Chance to win: .88%
My Field Ranking: 23/125
Donald continues to struggle with the wrist problems but if healthy I absolutely love him this week. Donald has never really showed well in an Open Championship, but I think he can contend this week.

20. Ross Fisher
Vegas Odds: 35-1
Chance to win: 1.12%
My Field Ranking: 31/125
That is a very steep price for someone who remained largely unknown in America several months ago. I think he has the talent to contend in majors, but this week coming off some recent good showings and with his wife expecting any day, this is not the time to back Ross Fisher.

19. Martin Kaymer
Vegas Odds: 33-1
Chance to win: .44%
My Field Ranking: 24/125
If only Kaymer did this and this, in these two tournaments. Kaymer is a great talent for sure, but lets be honest 33-1 is a steep price for this 24-year-old.

18. Nick Watney
Vegas Odds: 80-1
Chance to win: .84%
My Field Ranking: 27/125
Watney at 80-1 is pretty intriguing although that could be because of my strange attraction to him, dating back to his erratic play in last year’s fall series. Watney has always been a talented ball striker, or at least someone with potential to be, but the short game has really come around this season. Watney was 35th in his only other British Open appearance and I expect good things this week.

17. Brian Gay
Vegas Odds: 100-1
Chance to win: 1.49%
My Field Ranking: 14/125
I am hearing rumblings that driving accuracy will be at a premium this week because of some thick rough(Yay R&A for making a difficult major setup). If that is the case, Brian Gay is a pretty good driver of the ball, tour proven winner and offered at a very generous price. A lot to like here.

16. Rory McIlroy
Vegas Odds: 28-1
Chance to win: .48%
My Field Ranking: 22/125
I think Rory’s best chance to win a major right now comes in America, where he can use his extreme talent to hit high shots into tight pins of fast greens. I see him with a lot of the raw talent that Tiger had coming up, but not quite the refinement yet. I think when considering Rory, you need to consider who amazing it is that a 20 year old golfer has firmly established himself among the 25 best in the world. I think asking for a second consecutive top-10 in a major is a little too much for now.

15. Zach Johnson
Vegas Odds: 80-1
Chance to win: 1.73%
My Field Ranking: 9/125
A funny breakdown of Zach Johnson:

I can’t believe this guy is 70-1. He’s a winner. Multi time winner. A major champion winner. You don’t really need to know anything more. Straight driver, one of the very best grinders, way better than average putter, excellent frame of mind, course generalship, knows his limitations (unlike Lefty), gets streaky good, and on top of all that, has God on his side. Man, 70-1, I don’t think he will win, but 70-1 is a gift.

Zach may get too much credit for winning a major, but he is an very solid player.

14. Geoff Ogilvy
Vegas Odds: 45-1
Chance to win: 1.60%
My Field Ranking: 13/125
Ogilvy certainly has the talent to produce the high ball flight, but I’m not sure that he is a great shot maker. Ogilvy has one 5th and four missed cuts in his British Open record. He is no doubt a major type talent, as proved a Winged Foot, but I think the other three majors suit his game far better.

13. Lucas Glover
Vegas Odds: 100-1
Chance to win: 1.10%
My Field Ranking: 12/125
As much as I am a fan of Lucas Glover, I keep thinking there is no way he can keep this incredible run of form up while playing for his fifth straight week. Still I have to give the “surprise” US Open Champion his due for truly elevating his game to the world’s elite.

12. Anthony Kim
Vegas Odds: 40-1
Chance to win: 2.08%
My Field Ranking: 16-1
You probably forgot last year, who had the best ball striking round in the final round of the Open Championship. Minus Padraig Harrington’s 5 wood on 17, that was Anthony Kim. He hit a ton of greens but could not by a putt on the slower British surfaces. I’m not sure Kim’s swing is quite as good this season, which is why he isn’t in my top ten right now, but I see the potential for good things.

11. Ian Poulter
Vegas Odds: 28-1
Chance to win: .59%
My Field Ranking: 15/125
Giving some respect to the Vegas Odds and Poulter’s surprisingly entertaining twitter account. If it was up to me, Poulter would not be this high even with his second place finish from last year. When I compare Poulter’s swing with other elite players, I just don’t think it holds up. He is certainly very good, but not someone I see making the next step into the handful of best players not named Tiger. Good recent form and course history make him a pretty good fade.



Filed under Uncategorized


  1. rolub

    I’d like to change my golf contest entry name to “Course Generalship”, assuming “Streaky Good” is already taken.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s