One last look at the Open. I should preface this by saying, I am not entirely sure what the Open Cut rule is. I am pretty sure it’s low 70 and ties I can say over the past 5 years that an average of 73.8 players have made the cut, so I am going with that for these numbers. This was a last ditch effort to fade some certain people so we will see how it works out.
First of all I find it a little absurd that there is an edge on almost everyone of these despite 30-cent lines, so I am not sure what they are worth. I will say, though, logically speaking they do fit my opinions on most of the golfers.
This leaves an average of -7% EV on the miss cut and +2% EV on the make cut. Evening that out, that comes up with an average of 81.2 players that will make the cut. Not sure what that means, but I guess I can look back in a few days.
Here is the adjusted cut numbers:
The most tempting one for me was David Duval +100 to miss the cut, considering he has missed 28/42 cuts in the last three years. That just looks way too easy, given I am not even sure of what the exact rule is.
I think we’ll go with an open thread/frequently updated post tomorrow because I won’t have time for a live chat.