Case and point, this one from golf.com.
Tiger Woods, currently at 2 to 1 at Las Vegas casino sportsbooks, is the favorite by a wide, wide margin. If you think Woods will win, Esposito says you should grab him now. “Those odds will drop pretty quickly,” Esposito said. “My guess is Tiger will be at 8 to 5, 6 to 5, or even before the British Open starts.”
Really? Than why has he gradually slid up at 5dimes from +225 to +260?
The odds are so skewed toward Woods–especially with his only near rival, Phil Mickelson, not competing at Turnberry this year–that the next player on the board, Sergio Garcia, is a 12-to-1 bet to win. Other contenders drop even further: Defending champion Padraig Harrington is 20 to 1, Henrik Stenson is 20 to 1, Paul Casey is 20 to 1, Rory McIlroy is 25 to 1, Geoff Ogilvy is 25 to 1, Ian Poulter is 25 to 1, Ernie Els is 35 to 1.
“There’s real value there in players in that 20 to 40 group,” Esposito said. “In fact, with those short odds, the house ends up rooting for Tiger because if one of those long shots come in the casino can really get burned.”
Translation: Don’t take one of those guys listed above because there is almost certainly no value on any of those players. I’m calling shenanigans on the “casino getting burned” with longshots, too. Lucas Glover could not have set them back at all. Phil, Ernie, Vijay and those “longshots” might set them back, but they are all terrible bets in the long run.
I’m 80% sure at this point, Tiger(to win at least) is not as popular before the tournament as people might assume. I can at least make a case for him being fairly priced unlike so many of the other big names in the field.