At first glance Retief Goosen and Adam Scott are pretty overrated by these numbers. I’m not willing yet, to take a shot against Goosen, who blew a tournament a few weeks ago in Germany, or Adam Scott, who has been awful lately but clearly could have more potential than the past year of results give him credit for.
Interestingly enough, Camilo Villegas and Nick Watney who spend most of their time on the US Tour seem to be pretty underrated. I think that is the best option for round 3.
Camilo Villegas +2500(.38)
Nick Watney +2200(.43)
Molinari +105 v. MAJ(1)
Kaymer +105 v. Goosen(1)
Camilo Villegas +105 v. Ross Fisher(1)
Nick Watney +110 v. Ross Fisher(1)
Marcus Fraser +154 v. Martin Kaymer(1)
Molinari and Kaymer are taking the better player with more upside against and older guy. Retief’s play in Europe and the US of late makes him pretty overrated, in my opinion.
Villegas/Watney over Fisher is an extension of my thoughts from the first two days of this tournament.
Fraser against Kaymer is a stab in the dark with a surprisingly consistent and unknown player. Fraser hasn’t missed a cut in Europe this year. Kaymer is on a nice run of form and definitely more likely to win, but +154 is a pretty generous line.
Definitely, more involved than I want to be, but all those are pretty solid options.