OPEN DE FREEDOM PICKS

I love making fun of FrenchFreedom people.

The Pick:
Alex Noren +6600(.15)
Alex Top-5 if I can find it.

This is basically an autoplay. Noren is my favorite Swedish golfer, a great ball striker, seemingly on the rise, and 5dimes has a generous price probably because Noren has played awful in his previous appearances in France. Sounds like a t-22 to me.

The Matchups:
Molinari -135 v. Fasth
Noren -105 v. Dodd
Oliver Fisher +100 v. Pablo Larrazabal
Michael Hoey +105 v. Mark Foster
Seve Benson +100 v. Steve Lowery
GMac -110 v. Dougherty
Kaymer -110 v. Cabrera

You can cross off GMac and Kaymer right away because those were borderline at -110, but not playable for sure at -130 and -125, respectively.

Hoey +105 sounds like a pretty good line, but who the hell is Mark Foster. Do I need to play that, probably not.

Only thought about fading Lowery, because he was a far from the world’s best amateur, yet won a EPGA tournament. Judging by this line, Vegas doesn’t think hes very good, but I don’t really see a need to play that. Benson is also -130 now, which is a worse price.

Molinari is better than Fasth, but I don’t need to lay -135 to prove it to myself. I don’t imagine there are a ton of rabid Fasth fans out there.

That leaves me with Fisher and Noren. If you’re not familiar with Pablo Larrazabal’s work here is a quote from his Euro Tour bio:

Finished his final year of high School in 2002 in the United States. Returned to Spain and wanted to turn professional straight away but his father, Gustavo, who had played for Venezuela in the World Cup of Golf, had other ideas, making the young Larrazabal go to work on the family fish farm to learn and understand the value of money, as well as a day’s hard labour.

Pablo is the defending champion and somewhat of a rising star, but has played awful so far this year. Fisher is another big talent, without a Euro Tour win to his credit, but is pretty similiar in terms of current ability to Larrazabal. +100 is pretty tempting, but there is something that makes me hesitant about it. Pass.

Put in Noren yesterday, because of the obvious absurdity of that line. This is one of those lines that raised a lot of red flags with me because it just seems wrong. Dodd is old, has been hot lately(back to back top-5s at Wentworth and the Euro Open) and is higher on the Euro Tour Order of Merit. Add in the fact that Noren has an abysmal history in France(kind of like the French, actually) and at his age(27) more upward potential than Dodd at his(42). Fits all the criteria I’m looking for, plus my numbers give a big edge to Noren.

Noren -105(2)-Full Tourney
Noren -110(1)-Round Uno.

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