Donald +100 v. Anders Hansen(1)
Obviously, going against Hansen probably isn’t too contrarian, but he did beat Donald by 1 today and finished second here last season, so its enough for me to take a shot with a vastly superior player at +money.
The early top-5 odds from 5 dimes were pretty fantastic. I have Perry at 53% to get into the top-5 at this point. Normally, I would pass that off as my error, but the rest of the top players are so close to what I have that it definitely seems reasonable. I also couldn’t lay off DJ after a -4 round(bogey free!). I have around 8% of DJ getting into the top-5, but my numbers clearly don’t take into account how bad DJ actually is.
Kenny Perry +400 top-5(4)-on the match-up scale, risking 1.6x.
DJ Trahan +3000 top-5(.32)
I had to do a leans list for this:
David Toms +115 v. Kenny Perry
Anthony Kim +110 v. Hunter Mahan
Ben Curtis -105 v. Stewart Cink
Heath Slocum -110 v. Justin Rose
Charles Warren -120 v. Ricky Barnes
I have Toms as a -106 favorite, plus Perry is coming off the low round of the day by two shots. That seems fadeable, but I’m just not comfortable taking Toms here. I think it is a pass, but It is close.
Kim +110 against Mahan is the best spot to fade Hunter for the second round. However, Mahan has actually outplayed Kim in the past year, although it is closer bringing in my full numbers. It seems marginal based on the numbers and course history is probably worth something so I will pass that too.
I have Curtis -130 as the fair line, which seems reasonable considering Curtis did nothing today and Cink is the defending Champion. Cink could be due to respond from a opening round 71, but take away the match play and he hasn’t been all that good this season. Unfortunately, a poor first round and signs that maybe and under-performing Cink is starting to turn things around recently make this one a pass, too.
Slocum is the slightly better player than Rose, I’m not sure I want to pay -110 for it though. Slocum may be better than my numbers indicate because of a back injury that he tried to play through, however its not like Rose has been lighting the world on fire, either. Pass.
I just put Warren -120 on here to mention how Ricky Barnes is being valued. Before the tournament he was paired with Chris Riley, who I actually have him as being better than. I have Barnes as slightly better than Warren, too, but not enough to play at -110. Warren -120 makes more sense(-105, even juice) if you take out last week’s performance.