I hope you weren’t waiting for this because there won’t be much here.
Sergio +115 v. Phil
Sergio -125 v. Stenson
Tim Clark -115 v. Stenson
Paddy +160 v. Toms
Sergio is now -135, and +105 respectively, which gives me the indication that my leans were right, but I have no need to play them now. Tim Clark against Stenson is the same way. I also briefly considered Clark +100 v. Toms, but I don’t really want to take that. It’s not like Tim Clark is playing awful recently.
The one that gave me the most problem is Padraig Harrington +160. There is no way that isn’t value. Toms and Harrington are at worst the same players. Toms course history at St. Jude and advantage in recent play is obviously worth something, but I feel pretty confident it is not worth -185.
This was incredibly close to being a play, but with a much much much bigger tournament next week and Paddy winning two majors last season, I don’t really see any reason that I need to take him.
So, its a pass.
As far as the outrights go, I thought about passing all together than I saw my boy D.J. sitting at +14000. So I figured it was worth a shot.
Trahan to win +14000(.15)
At this point, I am much more excited about the U.S. Open.