FINAL ROUND AT MEMORIAL

I came up with these leans. Then, I took an ice cold shower.

Leans:
Tiger -255 over Els
Fuyrk +100 over Ogilvy
Mahan -110 over Dustin Johnson
Curtis -110 over Weir
Steve Stricker +110 over Casey
Goggin +100 over Jason Day
Schwartzel -130 over Leishman

Like I said, the Ice cold shower is key. There is no need to fade Els, with El Tigre, same applies to everyone’s favorite Nationwide Tour graduate Mark Leishman. Casey may be fadeable, but not with the basically equivalent Steve Stricker. I am developing a man crush on Curtis, but not sure that he is worth it against Weir. Day is overrated, but like I said, has a real upside and Goggin is a former runner up, so that isn’t the most contrarian. Mahan is hilarious, but with two solid rounds in a row and the possibility that DJ has room to improve is not worth the risk. Fuyrk. That is another story. He has been consistently underrated by my numbers getting a plus number against a guy who played two average rounds and a great one. Normally I would take Mr. Jim Fuyrk, but then I looked at my outright odds.

MY ODDS
memorial3

Tiger and Furyk are being favored in an abnormally big way. Take your pick, Ogilvy(maybe not that one), Byrd, Wilson, Bettencourt are all probably somewhat attractive picks. For some random reason, I am a little gun shy on these, and am passing, with the hopes that Mahan or Trahan shoots the round of their lives.

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2 Comments

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2 responses to “FINAL ROUND AT MEMORIAL

  1. dksndo

    Not sure I understand the confident/cocky tone of your proclamations, given your historical record. I.e., it’s pretty clear you do not have edge, even when cherry-picking the best avail. lines in an illiquid sport, over a significantly large sample (300+ bets). This is not a good sign.

  2. Whether or not I can win at Golf in the long run remains to be seen. However, I can say that for the matchups I have recorded week to week my numbers, which take into account only skill level against the field average over the past year, do show an edge over the Vegas lines, albeit a small one. I attribute my failures(undeniable) more to a failure to correct apply my methods for a variety of reasons:

    -There were certain factors that I clearly overlooked that may be overrated by the public, but are certainly worth something.
    -For the first two months of the PGA Tour season I assumed the Euro Tour was equal to the PGA Tour in terms of field strength, which is pretty clearly not the case.
    -Finally a small portion of it, is getting horrendous luck.

    Again, I don’t know if I can make money betting on golf, but Its a learning process. This means nothing in the long run, but since I have re-examined my process at the BMW EPGA Championship I have made over 5units.

    Also, What about anything that I wrote above seems that unreasonable? Of the match-ups listed, they would have gone 5-1-1. Tiger won, but he had to shoot the best round of the day, by two shots, to do so, which I can’t see having more than around the 6% chance that I listed.

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