BRYON NELSON CLASSIC RD 3 RECAP

For some reason, the field absolutely caught fire today. The course played almost 2 strokes easier than it did for for the first two days.

Of course when you look closer it is a little misleading. Just looking at the players that made the cut, Friday was the easiest day. Players making the cut averaged 67.8 strokes, while today they averaged 68.2. The scores just look a lot lower today, because there are no 78’s fired by scrubs.

Rory Sabbatini and John Mallinger dropped matching 65’s to extend their co-lead to 2 shots over the field. Obviously, they have the best chance of winning tommorrow, but with a relatively close field and low numbers out there, the final round of the Byron Nelson Classic should be more wide open than the EPGA Championship.
byronrd4

I was surprised already by Casey’s odds at Wentworth, so I don’t really want to throw out any guesses, but off the top of my head I’ll say Rory -205 to NOT win/+185 to win is the line. As longshots, Briny Baird or Kevin Streelman might be worth a look, but I don’t see anything incredibly attractive out there.

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2 Comments

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2 responses to “BRYON NELSON CLASSIC RD 3 RECAP

  1. cajuncook

    Which makes me wonder, how do you factor in how the median round score changes after the cut? As far as I can tell, the z-score is something of an average of how much better a golfer shoots over the field’s average for the day, but doesn’t that average drop significantly post-cut?

    • Good question. I haven’t really noticed the scores being significantly lower after the cut. For a full field pro event I don’t really see a whole lot of difference in terms of before or after the cut. This probably makes a bigger difference at events like the US Open or PGA Championship, where there are a large number of amateurs/club pros that suck. I don’t count their scores in those events.

      The caliber of the average player in the field drops from about .05-.10 standard deviations after the cut. So players do get that small “bonus” for adjusted field strength in my ratings. I really don’t think this is an issue, It’s not like the guys that show value by my numbers are guys that miss a ton of cuts. On the contrary, it seems like the guys my numbers like most are players like Briny Baird, Robert Allenby or Alex Noren who post consistent made cuts and consistently high finishes.

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