Let’s do this again by process of elimination. From Yesterday’s look at the field I picked out these three leans in order from Strongest-Weakest.
The first thing I always do is look to see whether my leans odds have moved at all. Piercy and Goggin has not. Trahan has moved from 150-1 to 145-1 which is basically no difference. That is absurd because Phil was 7-1, so this tournament will be easier to win without him there.
Starting off with Piercy, because he is my weakest lean. Really my thoughts about Piercy started when I first saw him at the FBR Open. That really scares me, when I notice a guy off the bat for his good play, because that means a lot of other people did too. The problem is, I don’t see Piercy getting a whole lot of recognition. Piercy has made 6 top-25’s in 13 PGA Tour outings, which equals the number of top-25s he had on the Nationwide Tour last season. That leads me to believe he might be playing a touch over his head. His last 5 results are no where near as impressive as his first five, which again leads me to believe he was playing over his head. As much as I want to be right with the new nationwide guy, I think the right thing is to pass him and wait for him to lift the title at the St. Jude Classic, maybe too early, or if not the Canadian Open. I have my eye on you still Scott.
I honestly don’t see how Goggin is not a play at this number. After finishing 4th at Transitions he has royally sucked. That gives me a great price on a guy who is due for a return to form at some point. I think this one is in. Also, look at the Greek’s price. WOW.
Which means, Trahan is in too. 4 straight missed cuts is pretty darn ugly, for a player that almost made the Ryder Cup team last year and remains largely unloved. Checking all my metrics, there is just no way a player of his caliber should be this low. I can’t really take any meaning from his second round 67 last week, but if you want to, fine.
Trahan +14000 to win(.15)
Goggin +8000 to win(.24)
TOP-5 +1250 (.74)
Initial list looked like this:
Leonard -110 over Toms
Mahan -125 over Sabbatini
Moore +150 over Hoffman
Sutherland -135 over Chopra
Appleby -125 over Dustin Johnson
Rearranged in order to look like this:
None of these are anywhere close to the strength of the Donald play over at Wentworth. Mahan and Leonard are both easily out. I have reservations about them on the face of it after a second look, and one or more of my numbers systems agrees with that, so no way.
Appleby is a play. Laura Deason will explain why:
DUSTIN JOHNSON. I wanted to pick defending champion Adam Scott, but his game is too iffy right now. Johnson has consistently played well in 2009, with one win and four other top-25s. He also fired a third-round 62 last week.
As far as Hoffman goes, they could have matched him up with a number of players in this field. Yet they chose Ryan Moore, his pretty terrible play this year and +150. That just seems too easy to take Hoffman.
That leaves just one borderline play on the PGA Tour. This is one where my side seems just a little too easy. This is almost identical to the Kjeldsen play, except that Chopra is worse than Dougherty. I guess if I played Soren, I have to take this one as well, although I feel a lot better about this.
Ryan Moore +150 over Hoffman(1)
Sutherland -135 over Chopra(1)
Appleby -125 over Dustin Johnson(1)
Nothing for round 1. Good luck.