QUAIL HOLLOW CHAMPIONSHIP

In short, this is a strong field on a great old style course. That should make for an entertaining weekend.

I have ignored the Steve Marino sunday storyline this week because I am still unsure of what to make of it. Yes, he played like crap, from what I saw, but 2-under for the day isn’t horrendous. He also probably got lucky with the eagle on 16 and unlucky with his drive ending up in a bunker on 18. Tough to tell what should have happened there. Oh well, I got dead heated, life goes on.

The Winners*
Sergio Garcia +3550(.27)
Top-5 +700(1.25)

Martin Kaymer +12500(.15)
Top-5 +2200(.43)

I could spend time going through my process, but that implies there was a process. I had my eyes on these two guys pretty much right away and never left. You know who I don’t like in this tournament.
*Losers

MATCHUPS:
Adam Scott +140 over Nick Watney(2):
I can’t understand this one at all. Well actually I can. I just can’t understand the people that are betting this like Watney is so much better. Pretty darn even under my yearly and year+ metrics so you would have to value Nick Watney’s recent play extremely high or think there is something about it that is sustainable/predictable in the future. I don’t.

Robert Karlsson -125 over Ian Poulter(1)
I am officially no longer afraid of reverse line movement in Golf when I have the numbers to back up my opinion that the guy I bet on is better.

Jeev -125 over Vaughn Taylor(1):

You just knew I couldn’t go one of these mixed tourneys without taking Jeev and Bobby K.

Vijay +120 over Goosen(1):

This is what I would call “ugly,” as in I don’t think it has a very good chance to win/it is a fake contrarian line. Still, Vijay is hitting a ton of greens and not getting the results so far this year that Goose is. I’ll take a shot. Keep in mind I am about 0-6 on Vijay this season.

Paddy +105 over AK(1)
Sergio +105 over AK(1)
Paddy +125 over Ogilvy(1)

Harrington and Garcia are guys that have excelled on these types of courses, but not necessarily this one. Fading a former champ and a guy with decent history here, with two players who haven’t reached their potential this season.

Scott Piercy +100 over JJ Henry(1):
This kind of looks like a trap, but I really don’t think people are looking at Piercy like I am and JJ Henry is not that good. I’ll take my chances that 50.1% of the time Piercy is better.

Passing Mahan -110 over Sabbs, because of Mahan’s recent hot play. None of the Matchups for round one are available/look enticing. Fantasy squad will be up tomorrow morning.

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4 Comments

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4 responses to “QUAIL HOLLOW CHAMPIONSHIP

  1. Sergio has 4 birdies, an eagle, a bogey and a triple on his card today and El Tigre is in the lead. Fantastic.

    Kaymer is 1-under with all pars and a birdie. That is some shamwow-like consistancy right there.

  2. “I am officially no longer afraid of reverse line movement in Golf when I have the numbers to back up my opinion that the guy I bet on is better.”

    I’ll second this. It does not take much money or know how to move these golf odds. I’m living proof.

  3. I’m glad I never locked in a play on Sergio for Bethpage. I think he may have lost his damn mind.

  4. I think Hanrahan can putt better than Sergio.

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