GUESSING GOLF ODDS: QUAIL HOLLOW CHAMPIONSHIP

Unlike a lot of other tournaments, which I call by the course name(Doral, Riviera) because it is easier than an endless cycle of corporate sponsors this tournament is actually called the “Quail Hollow Championship.”

quail-hollow-guesses
This may not be the best tournament for outrights. With Tiger, it seems to me, relatively fairly valued at the top, with a legitimate huge shot to win this tournament there is a small margin for value. The fact is Tiger great chance of winning this tournament, and it is completely different ballgame than some of the other Tigerless tournaments this season.

The flipside is, Tiger brings in a lot of attention and more oppurtunity to take underrated players. Not surprisingly I have my eye on a few Euro guys this week.

Fading-wise, I’m not so sure what is going to be out there. Yes Sabbatini and Watney will be comically overvalued, but because Tiger is around 30% to win this tournament, its not like they are eating up nearly as big a portion of the odds.

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4 Comments

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4 responses to “GUESSING GOLF ODDS: QUAIL HOLLOW CHAMPIONSHIP

  1. Owen

    Why did you think Adam Scott’s odds will be so different than actual (65-1 @ pinny)? Seems like you are usually much closer to the lines.

  2. 1) I kind of bombed through this not giving it much thought
    2) I used my Tour adjusted metric as a guide for the first time(Don’t think that makes a huge difference)
    3) Scott’s high standard deviation based on what I has, really screws with my numbers.
    4) His 3rd place finish here a few years back.

    In terms of how his scores have been relative to the field 65-1 seems like a fair price.

    • Owen

      cool – really appreciate your work. I maybe just noticed this cause I had liked Scott a ton at the start of the year – not actually sure how often you are off just seems like you are good at “guessing”/predicting the top of the board.

      • I guess if you like Scott this is a pretty decent spot. He hasn’t really been that good this year, and it doesn’t seem like you are paying at all for a high finish in the past at Quail Hollow. He might make it onto my fantasy team, but there are a few guys I like better.

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