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There are some really fantastic props this week. Lets get started:
Top Big Name:
Makes sense that Paddy is the most reasonable of this group, he is by far the least popular. Still it is not a great bet.
Top Man down under:
This is by far the best odds. As ML pointed out, Goggin is not part of this, which is one less solid underrated player to look at. Geoff Ogilvy odds are honestly the worst I can remember seeing as long as I have been looking at these props. -165? At first, I thought they meant +165, but it hasn’t changed at all. That leaves a TON of value on Robert Allenby and some on Aaron Baddeley. I debated just taking all of these guys flat bet for a unit, but I just took my chances on Baddeley and Allenby.
Top 09 Winner:
Another group with some obvious value on one player: Kenny Perry. Perry has never really done well at majors, which definitely deflates this price. In addition, Retief Goosen and Nick Watney are apparently top-10 players in the world. Casey actually isn’t too overvalued because despite all the attention, he was actually a better player prior to this recent stretch than most people realizes. Zach Johnson rounds out the group making this an ideal situation for Perry
These were way off what the Greek had so I didn’t look to closely at them. Still I think there is probably value on the big names playing poorly. Just looking at the lines I would say Phil worse than 8th, Tiger worse than 2nd, Sergio Top-20 stood out to me.
I made up this rough chart with all the finishing position rough odds. They are only approximate, because I had to estimate on my own the odds for the old guys and amateurs:
I had some problems with the cut rule. It is low 44 and ties and all players within ten shots of the lead. Over the past five years it has ranged from 44-60. The first column is just top-44 after two rounds the last column is top 49.20, which is the average of number of players making the cut in the past 5 seasons. I had no time to project this out otherwise, and I am not betting on any of these missed/make cut props, but I think as always there is probably value on good and big name players missing the cut.
Didn’t run the Aussies, because they were worse than Man Down Under.
That’s it for the props I felt like doing. If there is one that particularly interests you, feel free to ask in the comments and I will weigh in. Here is what I ended up taking:
Anthony Kim Top Young Gun +265(2)
Kenny Perry Top 09 Winner +625(2)
Aaron Baddeley Top Man Down Under +1015(2)
Robert Allenby Top Man Down Under +875(4)
Mainland European Winner +825(2)
Phil Mickelson worse than 9 -108(1)
Sergio Garcia top-20 +125(2)
Picks and Matchups up late tonight. If I get around to it three balls up tomorrow morning.