INSIDE THE MASTERS FIELD: LONGSHOTS

This is going to be a dangerous post. I know I will start with a few ideas and end with many. These are arbitrarily picked and the lines come from Pinny.

The Old Guys-Various Odds:
No. No. No. No. No. I promise you if these guys were good enough to still be on the PGA Tour they would be. The fact is they are not and against this strong of a field they are terrible options.

Greg Norman +20000:
It is really hard to believe that at one time Greg Norman was by far the best player in the world. There is no situation in which Greg Norman being at Augusta is good. It’s not like they are going to put him in any enticing matchups too fade, and laying -30000 against Greg Norman is not an option, either. If Norman plays his way into contention, I think given his history at Augusta he rounds into a decent play in some form, but I want no part of that. Just go away, Greg.

Fred Couples +12500:
Couples is playing well and won a Green Jacket in 1992. Not surprisingly, I have no problem dismissing his title hopes in under 3 seconds.

The Young-uns/Amateurs:
Danny Lee and Ryo Ishikawa certainly enter this week with lots of hype and promise, but there games are not at the level to beat an elite field quite yet. Lee has a better chance than Ishikawa, but it is still not that great. As far as the other Amateurs go, Reiner Saxton(British Amateur Championship, I think) jumped out to me as having lower odds in the “Top Debutant” category than the other amateurs, but, honestly, if these guys were good enough to be pros they would be. See McIlroy, Rory. Apparently Steve Wilson is a 38 year old gas station owner from Mississippi. I’m rooting for him to win the low-am medal.

Bubba Watson +30000:
Bubba is famous for doing one thing: hitting the ball a long way. Unfortunately, Bubba is not famous for being good at golf.

Prayad Marksaeng +40000:
Prayad got the special exemption last year and shot a 82, then withdrew. Since I don’t think the Euro Tour is any worse in general than the PGA Tour, I have a higher opinion of Prayad than most people. At 400-1 he might be one of the better “no chance in hell bets”

Louis Oosthuizen +22500:
Oosthuizen has already won once on the Euro Tour this season in an event with a similar field to the event Paul Casey won. Not that Oosthuizen is as good as Casey, but I’m pretty sure you aren’t playing for a win at this price.

Soren Hansen +25000:
Another Euro guy that it is hard not to like. Hansen has had consistently strong results on the Euro Tour for the past three years and is still this high. On top of that, a slow start this season has driven the price even higher.

Soren Kjeldsen +17500:
Kjeldsen’s top-10 at Doral and win the ensuing week have knocked down that price a little. He may be due to cool off, but even so its hard to make a case that he should be as high as 175-1.

Oliver Wilson +17500:
Defeated Kim at the WGC-Match Play event, where he ended up losing in the round of 16. Since then he has missed a cut, picked up a top-5 and finished t-70. Up and down results, for a quality player.

Dustin Johnson +25000:
No.

Jeev Milkha Singh +15000:
If you played Mirror Augusta National I would be all over Jeev. As it stands I’m going to be careful on the guy with the homemade swing who can’t really draw the ball too well. That is a pretty stupid reason not to take someone, but there are definitely better options this week.

Alvaro Quiros +15000:
Quiros hits the ball a long way. He is streaky around the greens. If he plays four rounds expect one really low one, one really high one and two average rounds. He has the game to go low at Augusta National, but not the game to play consistent here.

Martin Kaymer +15000:
Another Euro guy that I really like this week. Decent showing last week in Houston that was solid without drawing too much attention. At 150-1, this is an extremely good price.

Ross Fisher +15000:
Guess what? I like Ross Fisher, too. I told you this could get dangerous. There is something about the attention Fisher has drawn from finishing high in the match play that I don’t really like. Enough to scare me away from this one.

Rory Sabbatini +15000:
No.

Hunter Mahan +10000:
As I roll through the field Hunter Mahan looks like he is going to earn the title of “my favorite American this week not named Anthony Kim,” whatever that is worth. I like Mahan’s game, and he is due to get back into form sometime soon.

Steve Stricker +10000:
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Stricker wins this, gets 20 points for my fantasy team, but doesn’t win me any money. You heard it here first.

Trevor Immelman +10000:
No. If Trevor didn’t win last year, would he A) Be here, and B) be going off at less than 300-1. I say no to both.

Brent Snedeker +11000:
Snedeker is high finish version of Trevor Immelman. He may not have won here, but his price is way out of line with his ability because of one high finish.

I think that is all I want to talk about. Fantasy, Props and Picks posts up tomorrow.

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One response to “INSIDE THE MASTERS FIELD: LONGSHOTS

  1. Pingback: THE MASTERS PICKS « REXFORD BUZZSAW

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