I’m breaking this up into three posts today. I plan to take a look at some of the props out there tomorrow, as well as posting my picks late Wednesday night. There will probably be a frequently updated post on Thursday and a live chat on Friday.
FAVORITES(Odds from Pinny)
Tiger Woods +235:
El Tigre is the obvious favorite here and from what I can see, but he is not the most outrageously priced person in this ground. Based on my adjusted numbers from what Tiger’s lines have looked like this season, Tiger should be about +340 to win. I think it’s fair to say he came back strong enough to erase some doubts so +300 as a fair line seems reasonable. That is still a losing bet, though.
Phil Mickelson +800:
Phil is the most ridiculously priced player this week, considering he went off about this price last week without Tiger. I don’t care about course history, Tiger being in the field makes it a lot less likely that anyone else will win. I have Phil being in the 20-25 range as a pretty good price meaning you are losing about a 5% edge on this bet. Phil has a “perceived” great season going so far and a win at Augusta he is overvalued number one in my opinion this week.
Padraig Harrington +1600:
From what I have read so far, there seems to be a much more casual fan awareness of this tournament. Makes sense, right? Well to them Paddy is a back-to-back major champion and third best player in the world. These are not the kind of people that really care that Paddy has been so mediocre since Oakland Hills. I believe he was undervalued last week, but not this week.
Sergio Garcia +3000:
This is the best look by far of anyone under 30-1 to win. That play on the weekend, and the PGA Tour in general, really obscures the fact that Sergio has had a decent season. People are giving him no respect and his odds have fallen for reasons that aren’t entirely clear to me. At worst, my numbers so far have Sergio as 27-1.
Geoff Ogilvy +2000:
Geoff started the year at about 40-1 to win the Masters, and that is a pretty decent price. Unfortunately a very good season has left Ogilvy overrated by the Public. After a good,(and somewhat lucky) finish in Houston Ogilvy sits right behind Mickelson on my fade list this week.
Rory McIlroy +3000:
McIlroy is a nice young player with a game that appears to translate to America quite well. He also has the first timer jinx going for him. That being said, there is no reason he should be priced equal to Sergio. That is just a little lofty for the 19-year-old. Rory has played better at a young age than probably anyone alive but he is just not this good.
Anthony Kim +5500:
Kim is certainly decently priced line because Kim has not played that much on the PGA Tour this season. As a first-timer there will be some value here. In the end, this seems like a pretty fair line considering Kim is a guy that appeals more to the “four majors and the Ryder Cup fan” than the week than the “follow the tour every week and read ESPN” fan. Kim is a definite yellow light here, not sure I want to take the chance it turns red.
Camilo Villegas +4500:
He is just not better than Anthony Kim. You can make a case that there play was pretty much equal last season, but I don’t see any part of Camilo’s game that projects about better than AK. This price is way too low.
Paul Casey +3000:
Paul is the rare European that actually gets respected by the American public. If you ask me Casey has the two best wins this season(Dubai, Houston) narrowly edging out Phil(Riviera, Doral) and Ogilvy(Kapalua, Match-Play). Casey is a pretty good player but 40-1 is a fairer price than 30-1. Casey is #4 on the fade list, just below Tiger.
Henrik Stenson +4000:
No idea on Stenson here. My numbers, which may overrate Euro’s a little like Stenson at this price. However, this price is definitely affected by a top-5 finish that wasn’t as good as it looks based on fortunate conditions. I put this in the close, but pass category with Kim despite how much I like Henrik’s game.
Retief Goosen +2800:
What? Where did this come from? He won at Transitions? Okay, but it isn’t 2003 and it isn’t a US Open. #5 on the fade list behind Casey.
Ernie Els +4000:
The difference between Ernie and Retief is how they have played this season. They are both pretty overrated, though. Els has been a better player over the past year than Retief, but I’m still looking nowhere near El’s direction.