MLB NOTES: NL CENTRAL

-The Pirates and Astros are going to SUCK.

-BPro has the Cubs winning the division, that does not seem unreasonable at all. The Cubs should be one of the most popular teams this season.

-Rich Harden should be a great fade. He had an amazing 1.77 ERA with the Cubs last season. His FIP was 3.08 and BABIP was .229, well above his career average. Harden won’t be bad, just overvalued.

-Every other projected starter on the Cubs had an ERA lower than FIP last season, although not as much as Harden’s.

-St. Louis struck me as an 82 win team before I even looked at Bpro’s 83 win projection. They will probably be overrated, because of their large market/popularity.

-The Cardinals pitching had the second fewest K/9 in the league last season.

-Todd Wellemeyer is probably a good fade on the Cards. His 13-9 3.71 ERA last season disguises the fact that is K/9, HR/9 and FIP were not really all that good last season. Oh, and he stranded more runners and allowed a lower BABIP than his career averages.

-As a team, the Brewers FIP outperformed their ERA by the most in baseball. The Pirates were one of the most underachieving sqauds based on this.

-NL CENTRAL PITCHER FADE LIST:
A-List: Harden-CHC, Dempster-CHC
B-List: Zambrano-CHC, Wellemeyer-STL, Sheets-MIL, Bush-MIL, Suppan-MIL
C-List: Rest of Cubs, Maholm-PIT, Volquez-CIN

-NL CENTRAL BET LIST:
A-List: Snell-PIT
B-List: Duke-PIT
C-List: Harang-CIN

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2 Comments

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2 responses to “MLB NOTES: NL CENTRAL

  1. “-Every other projected starter on the Cubs had an ERA lower than FIP last season, although not as much as Harden’s.”

    Well yeah, this will happen when you have one of the two best defenses in baseball. It’s not like they just got lucky.

    And Re: Harden, I don’t know. I don’t doubt that we’ll be against him our fair share, but I don’t think he’s outrageously overrated. PECOTA projects him to have the lowest ERA of any starter in baseball, as far as I can tell. He’s not 1.77 ERA good, but, when healthy, he’s pretty sick.

    “-As a team, the Brewers FIP outperformed their ERA by the most in baseball. The Pirates were one of the most underachieving sqauds based on this.”

    Seriously, you can’t look at it like this. The Pirates’ defense sucks, that’s why their ERA is higher than their FIP. It’s not bad luck, it’s incompetence.

  2. Fair enough, I didn’t really look into defense for this.

    Although I wasn’t trying to suggest that the Brewers or Pirates were necessarily lucky or unlucky based on the differences in ERA-FIP. That just jumped out to me when I was running through this division, whatever the cause may be.

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