ESTORIL OPEN DE PORTUGAL

It’s been awhile since something on the European Tour has caught my attention. My usual process for Euro events consists of quickly running down the field and seeing what stands out. This week I found one.

This course is a really neat looking venue along the ocean. It looks like a combination of Augusta with wide tree lined fairways and a seaside links. Only slightly over 6800 yards makes this not a very long test. I strongly encourage anyone to head over to the Euro Tour website and take a run through of the excellent course fly-bys they have.

At only 6800+ yards, The name that stood out to me was Paul McGinley. McGinley is a former Ryder Cupper who my numbers have liked more than everyone else for awhile and finished in the top-10 here last year so I had to double check this.

McGinley has not made a cut in his last three events, and has a high finish of t-47 on the Euro Tour this season. He hasn’t finished inside the top-20 since the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles at the end of August. Looking at his stats he is averaging just over 280 yards off the tee, so a smaller course could bode well for his game. He has also hit fewer GIR’s this year than in season’s past. I am hoping for a regression to the mean with this one:

Paul McGinley to win +10000(.20)
Paul McGinley top-10 +1000(.90)

The match-ups looked like garbage here. I briefly considered Dredge over Nick Dougherty and GFC over Thomas Aiken, but their are bigger fish to fry in Humble, Texas this week. Those picks will be up later tonight.

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