Team-by-team takes to long, and I am fairly certain which teams will be in my top-10, for VW’s contest.
For this week, I’m going to go division-by-division and get some thoughts out there that will help me when the season starts.
Pinny: Over -117 +.520 true %
-In a division where the Braves are overshadowed by the high-spending Mets and World Champion Phillies they may have some value.
-Prior to trading Teixeira, the Braves had a .467 winning percentage. During that stretch they were 6-23 in one run games and outscored their opponents by 23 runs. Teixeira will not be on the Braves this year, so that doesn’t matter, but the Braves were an unlucky team last season.
-11-30, worst in the majors in one run games.
-Underperformed their pythagorean, second and third order records by 6,8,7 last season.
-Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez should help a terrible pitching staff last year. Jurrjens is a nice undervalued young pitcher.
-Glavine is not good.
-Not sure about projected closer Mike Gonzalez. He struck out a lot of batters/9, but he also had high walk and homer rates. He stranded very few runners last year, and the projections look okay on him.
VERDICT: Slightly underrated.
NEW YORK METS:
Pinny: Over -134 55% True.
-In fairness to those Choking dogs known as the New York Mets, they probably were the best team in the NL East Last year. The Phillies were 4 games over .500 in 1 run games, while the Mets were 3 games under. The Mets’ second and third order records were also the best in the division.
-Incredibly overrated by the Media.
-High priced free agent acquisitions.
-The Mets supposedly shored up their bullpen, yet PECOTA is projecting them to allow about the same amount of runs this year.
-K-Rod is a good pitcher, but last season was by no means his best, much less the greatest in the history of baseball, ever. Wagner’s season by advanced stats wasn’t all that different.
-Not that some of them aren’t good pitchers, but Santana, Maine, Pelfrey and Perez all had FIP’s higher than there ERA’s. They may have good seasons, but they should regress a little from last year.
BETTING NOTE: Not a bad price at Pinnacle, getting +118 for the Mets UNDER. Not sure what is available out there for US bettors.
VERDICT: The Mets are highly Overrated.
Pinny: Over -143, .571 true %.
PECOTA: 87-75, (838RS-769RA)
-It’s not like the Phillies are going to be a terrible baseball team this season after winning the World Series. 87 wins is a good number, but it is still 5 off last season’s pace.
-Defending World Series Champions.
110 RBI’s is nice, but given the fact that they both are awful in the field, I think you would rather have Burrell’s stats. Ibanez is the odds on favorite for first Phillie to get booed this season.
-The Phillies bullpen was amazing last year, but almost all of them had FIP’s higher than ERA’s and should regress this season.
-Who is the fifth starter?
BETTORS NOTE: The current price on the under for the Phillies at Pinny is probably a better price than the Mets given PECOTA projection.
Pinny: Over -113, .511 true %.
PECOTA: 76-86 (783RS-819RA)
-The Nationals suck
-Tough division has probably knocked this line down to the point that PECOTA is +5.5 strong on the Nationals.
-The Nationals on 59 games last year. On the bright side, they did slightly under perform their pythag, second and third order records.
-Shairon Martis, who ESPN has in Washington’s starting rotation, only pitched 20 major league innings last season. He did post over 10 Ks/9 in that time though, despite having some location issues.
-The last Pro is probably a question mark.
-Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes are nothing but bad news in the outfield. As in, they should not be hanging around each other. The Nats have surpassed the Rays as the team you do not want to fight this season.
-John Lannan had a nice season for the Nats last year with a 9-15 record and a 3.91 ERA. Unfortunately he should regress because of low strikeouts, high walks and a lot of homers allowed.
-Cabrera is another red flag pitcher for the Nats. He is known slightly, because of a lot of talent, but his Ks,BBs and HR numbers are really not as good as you might expect. The various projection systems project him out as a pretty average pitcher, which is probably not what you are paying for with him.
-Scott Olsen was a tough pick up for them. He had a 4.20 ERA last season, but his peripherals are much higher. He should regress up over 4.50 in ERA this season.
-Jordan Zimmerman had nice numbers last season…In AA.
BETTORS NOTE: Another reasonable price from pinny on the over. Taking the Nats and over certainly fits the unpopular criteria for betting. As far as single games go, the Nats are pretty playable even with some slightly overrated pitchers. As far as backing Lannan, Cabrera and Olsen, don’t do it against fellow crappy teams like the Marlins.