Pinny: Under -118 .519 true%
Over +100 .481 true%
PECOTA: 84-78(777RS-758 RA)
There was no was no more overrated team in all of baseball last season than the Angels. They outplayed their Pythagorean record by an incredible 12 games. They outplayed their 2nd and 3rd order records by even more(16 games).
This isn’t really relevant to the current season, but the most overrated player on the Angels was K-Rod. He posted a shiny 2.24 ERA with 62 saves on the surface last season. However, his K/9 was the highest since any season since 2003, His WHIP was the highest it has ever been and his FIP was at its highest since 2003. He still put together pretty impressive numbers, but he was a better pitcher in the 2006 and 2007.
Two of the Angels top-3 starters, Saunders and Lackey, should be worse this season than in the past. Saunders, in particular, outpitched his FIP by .98 and only struck out less than 5 batters per nine. Saunders BABIP was about .30 less than his career average and he also stranded an above average number of baserunners.
Weaver should be solid, but won’t make up for the lag in the rest of the rotation.
On offense the Angels are projected to score about the same number of runs as they did last season, despite losing Teixeira.
VERDICT: This was a lock to make it into VW’s contest before the line came out. Right now I have this as one of my more confident totals. Gambling-wise the Angels are a major fade. I am pretty sure the public will be all over them. If I could find somewhere near the value of -118 that Pinnacle has right now I would definitely bet on the Under. As it stands, The Greek has -160.