Same as Yesterday, leans are bolded.
Syracuse -12.5 v. S.F. Austin:
Cuse made a miraculous run through the Big East, but still only sits at 14th in KenPoms ratings. Maybe slightly low for a three seed, but not as overseeded as I originally thought. Stephen F. Austin has a neutral court win over NDSU and a road win at Drake on their resume. Not too bad for playing in an awful conference. They also have the 13th best adj D-Eff. With a strong consensus on ‘Cuse, this one is a big lean to Austin, Stephen F.
Kansas -10 v. NDSU:
This gets my vote for the most ridiculous line of the tournament. Kansas, regular season Big 12 champs, only laying 10 to a bunch of white guys from a school with only a few seasons of D-1 basketball from a state that no one cares about. Kansas is a solid team, 11th in the Pomeroys, but so is NDSU, 71st. Strong lean to NDSU.
Florida St. -3 v. Wisconsin:
Another team with a lucky run through a conference tournament that may hide how good they actually are. Florida State is five spots behind Wisconsin in the Pomeroys and projected to lose this game by one. Again, the strong consensus makes this a slam dunk.
Pittsburgh -20 v. East Tennessee St:
I guess this is a lean to the ETSU. Pomeroy only has this at 18, but I can’t really get too excited about any of games with big numbers.
Missouri -13.5 v. Cornell:
The consensus numbers suggest Cornell should be the lean here, and they probably are to some extent. However, I’m not to thrilled about backing a team that made it to the tournament last year against a Pomeroy Top-10 team. Missouri is coming off the Big 12 Tourney Title and Cornell got blown out last year against Stanford, so those are small points for Cornell.
Wake Forest -7.5 v. Cleveland St.:
Love Cleveland St. Aside from that Wake Forest just isn’t that good. Ranked 21st by Pomeroy makes them overrated in the polls and probably overseeded. It helps when you are ranked 45th in luck like the Demon Deacons are.
Michigan St. -17 v. Robert Morris:
Mich St. is getting about 65% right now on Wagerline and Pomeroy has them winning by 14. That’s as much as I care to look into this one.
Marquette -4.5 v. Utah St.:
That line is really short, right? Pass.
Arizona St. -4.5 v. Temple:
Based on the 13-1 odds to get to the final four, ASU is very underrated right now. Those are the kind of teams I have trouble going against regardless of what Wagerline is saying. ASU is ranked higher in the Pomeroys than 2-seeds Oklahoma and Michigan St.
West Virginia -8.5 v. Dayton:
This is a decent look, West Virginia is certainly a much better team, but the overratedness of Dayton has been exposed recently in losses to St. Louis, Charlotte and Duquesne. That, along with the reverse line movement is giving me pause on this one.
Xavier -11 v. Portland St.:
I’ll wait until the second round to take on either of these teams. Hopefully with Wisky.
Ohio State -3 v. Siena:
I actually have a slight lean to tOSU in this one, but I am probably passing. Everyone knows Siena and their history last year and they are under the impression that Siena is a better team. Surprisingly, Siena is 65th in the Poms compared to 99th last season. That doesn’t change the fact that tOSU is still about 30 spots higher than them.
Oklahoma St. -2 v. Tennessee:
USC -2 v. Boston College:
Southern California is just a much better team than BC. This is probably a pass, though. FWIW, Pomeroy has SC by 4.
Arizona -1 v. Utah:
I guess you have to take Utah and the points here, but for some reason there is nothing that excites me about this game.