Pinny: Under -173 .620 true %
Over +153 .380 true %
PECOTA: 73-89 (701 RS -780 RA)
Toronto is scheduled to play in the AL EAST, which will the hardest division in baseball based on the PECOTA projections. The Rays, Red Sox and Yankees are all projected to pick up well over 90 wins. That certainly doesn’t help the Blue Jays case.
Also not helping the Blue Jays is the fact that they outplayed their pythag, third order win totals by at least 3 games last year. That should make them overrated with the general public.
On offense PECOTA, doesn’t have them far off their pace of 714 runs scored last season. That won’t be the problem. Their pitching should be significantly worse this season. As a team the Blue Jays had the lowest ERA in the majors last season, leading to 610 runs allowed on the season:
Here is a look at last years starters, vs. this years projection:
Obviously, these are only projections and could be wrong, but it is easy to see that Toronto’s pitching will be a lot worse than last season. That could be bad news for a team that will score at about the same pace as last season.
VERDICT: I’m not sure there is any value in taking the Under looking at the Vegas line, but Toronto is a team I will look to fade early in the season and the UNDER should be about midway down my confidence list in VW’s totals contest.