In a world where I talked more about Alvaro Quiros than Louisville on Selection Sunday, here is some more off topic content.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Pinny: Under -149 .582 true %
Over +133 .418 true %
PECOTA: 76-86 (689 RS-720 RA)
The Giants are an interesting case. They play in a pretty weak division, where they are projected to finish third with 76 wins. The Dodgers now with Manny and the Diamondbacks should dominate this division.
Starting-pitching-wise the Giants should be pretty fantastic this year. PECOTA projects them as the second best staff in terms of runs allowed.
Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain and Randy Johnson all posted FIPs below 4 last season. Even Barry Zito was at 4.72, which isn’t as terrible as his ERA or record would indicate.
The Giants pen struggled a bit last year, but Wilson as a closer looks better based on his advanced stats than his ERA last season. There is no doubt that the Giants will have a great pitching staff.
The Problem lies in their offense that will be absolutely brutal. Molina, Ishikawa, Frandsen, Sandoval, Renteria, Lewis, Rowand, Winn is what ESPN has listed as their Giants Depth chart. Raise your hand if you can fill in first names and positions on all those players.
VERDICT: I think Pinny has SF at a pretty fair price so it is not worth betting, but this is one of my smaller leans for a 10 team contest. From a betting standpoint be careful with SF early on, because they are probably over valued by the public. Wait until they play like crap for a month, then Cain, Sanchez and Zito are all good pitchers to back.