Tiger is back for his first stroke play event on the Blue Monster at Doral.

If you haven’t been around this site for the past few days, the two running themes are Sergio is very good, and the European Tour is just as good as the PGA Tour.

If you think the Euro Tour or international Golfers are weaker, do me a favor take out Tiger, and see who has won majors from the past five years without Tiger.  Then look up some future odds for the Ryder Cup.   I agree that the PGA Tour has attracted better talent in the past because of the money, but with the Euro Tour putting in the Race To Dubai this season, the prize money is leveling and so will the tours.

If that doesn’t convince you, reading this may be more along your train of thought.


Doral is a personal favorite from Tiger Woods Golf. It is pretty wide open, the rough shouldn’t be too bad, with the exception of a few down lies in the bermuda grass, and the greens are pretty flat. In other words it is a course that has yielded winning scores of -17,-20, -10 and -24 in the last four years.

The most famous hole here is the 18th, which when it plays into the wind is one of the hardest holes in the world. Unfortunately great holes like 18 are mixed with some pretty average holes so Doral is not one of the best on tour. It has produced entertaining tournaments, though.

Geoff Ogilvy
Paul Casey
Charley Hoffman
Davis Love III

Ross Fisher
Steve Stricker

Alvaro Quiros to win 125-1(.15)
Alvaro Quiros top-10 9-1(1)
Sergio Garcia to win 20.5-1(.47)

I’m going with the Spanish Armada here. Quiros has a game I think suits this course pretty well, and of course is undervalued because he plays in Europe most of the time. Consider that Dustin Johnson beat a weaker field at AT&T and is going off at 80-1, so I am fairly confident I am not paying too much for Quiros’ win in the desert.

I couldn’t lay off Garcia. There was too much “Sergio is in poor form” and “Ogilvy is the world’s hottest golfer” not to take this. I have yet to figure out how a guy who hasn’t finished worse than 20th since the US PGA Championship is in poor form. He also can’t putt which is a plus.

Most of them are here.

Because of Line moves I added on these as well:
Kenny Perry +115 over Davis Love III(1)
Vijay +135 over Paul Casey(1)
Paddy +120 over Casey(1)
Vijay +115 over Els(1)
Sergio Top-5 +400 (2)

Most of them are add-ons. I was really close to taking KP over Love at -110. When it shifted to +115 I was sold.



I have no problem smartly risking more money at these bigger tournaments because I think they draw more action. That being said, how many people are really going to be paying attention to the Tourney in the 51st state. Not me.

If you do want an outright I would recommend, Merrick at 25-1, although that has been bet down, a lot, Nicholas Thompson or Casey Whittenburg, but none of them were strong enough for me.

A: Tiger Woods, Sergio Garcia
B: Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Oliver Wilson, Sean O’Hair
C: Henrik Stenson, Alvaro Quiros

The C group is loaded with Euro’s. I’d love to take Karlsson, Kaymer, Fisher, Oosthuizen and others, but you only get two. Bolded players are starting tomorrow.

Last Week: 171
Overall: 1345
Rank: 602, 99th Percentile

With almost half my bankroll in play, and college hoops going on, there will definitely be a live blog going tomorrow, probably starting around 11a.m.



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  1. Cosby

    Thanks for all of the great analysis. Quick question: Do you ever mess around with any first round match-ups? Why or why not?

  2. No not usually. My main reason is time. I may play a few of them in the majors and players because those tournaments are sure to draw a lot more action.

    It is also hard to find them at a decent number. If I could play them all at reduced juice like the matchplay than I would be more inclined to get into 1 round plays.

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