My outrights will be posted later along with course breakdown, but I wanted to get these out of the way first because I had a lot.
Sergio -110 over Phil(2):
If you want to pretend that Phil and Sergio are equal players that is fine by me. That is just not true, though. Sergio is a much better player. The one reason this is not a 4, is because this course will not necessarily punish you a lot for hitting the ball all over the place.
Quick aside: I really hope Sergio wins this week and Tiger finishes worse than 27th making Sergio the top ranked player in the World. There will be so much “Hes never won a major how can he be number one?” talk. First, let me say this. Winning the Players was every bit as hard as winning a major. Second, people who say that are stupid. They are taking an objective system and hammering it, because it does not fit their Objective desires. There is a reason the BCS is a shitty system.
The OWGR has its flaws. Namely, too much credit for a win, but it is somewhat objective and a decent system for showing how a player has played. Don’t bash it because someone hasn’t won a title with a certain name. SERGIO HAS SHOT THE MOST CONSISTENTLY LOW SCORES AROUND THE WORLD SINCE TIGER HAS BEEN OUT. HE SHOULD BE RANKED #1 BASED ON THE OWGR TIMING CRITERIA.
It is the difference between a 5-3 football team that is -22 in point differential and a 3-5 team that is +12. Ask any smart bettor, who is a better team.
Sergio +105 over Ogilvy(4):
This is the standard fade of a defending Champion and winner last time out. Look, I like Ogilvy’s game, but 3 WWW since November is well above his career pace. I’m going to say he may regress to his mean at some point. See above for Sergio.
Padraig Harrington +105 over Paul Casey(1):
Padraig has been absolute garbage of late. Casey has a Euro win and a Matchplay final to his credit so far this season. Hmm…seems like a play. Here is what sold me on this one, Padraig is below Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson and Ian Poulter on the fantasy distribution I looked at yesterday. That’s not right.
Vijay Singh +105 over Ernie Els(1):
I’ll take Vijay’s injury and solid course history against overrated Ernie Els all day.
Vijay Singh +110 over Paul Casey(1):
Some common themes here.
Lee Westwood -135 over Ian Poulter(1):
This would be a two if I wasn’t laying -135. I am more than happy to lay -135 against Ian Poulter, who advanced deep into the match play tournament and generally sucks. Westwood has not done great so far this season, but It really stands out that he is a -135 favorite over Poulter.
DJ Trahan +100 over Dustin Johnson(2):
Dustin Johnson has two PGA Tour wins since the Tour Championship last year. D.J. Trahan is actually a good golfer. I know I have said this before, but Dustin Johnson would probably not be on the PGA Tour this season. Just think about that. Johnson was 128th on the money list coming into Turning Stone last year.
Nick Watney -110 over Charley Hoffman(1):
I usually don’t bother with 5dimes 15 cent odds, but I found a few this week that were too hard to pass up. Would I rather have -105 or +100, yes, but -110 still has some value to fade the asshole with the purple shoes.
Alvaro Quiros -120 over John Rollins(1):
I am calling shenanigans on the PGA Tour>Euro Tour people out there. John Rollins has two really nice finishes lately, so it stands out a bit that he would be an underdog to a guy who has never finished better than 28th on the PGA Tour.
Oliver Wilson -125 over YE Yang(1):
Congrats on your win last week YE. I think that gives us some value here, for a player who is in the top-64 of the OWGRs as opposed to a guy who was not even in the top 400, before last week. That is a pretty big difference.
Soren Hansen -105 over Richard Sterne(1):
Sterne has two wins this year, consecutively on the Euro Tour. Soren Hansen shot finished consistently better. Another theme emerges.
Surprisingly I am still looking at a few more, that I think may slide down in my favor. I will post them later in my full tournament breakdown. I also will probably bring out the college hoops/WGC live blog tommorrow.