Nothing has caused me more heartbreak this golf season than Tiger Woods. The main root of this problem is that I just have no way to judge how good Tiger really will be confidently. There are so many factors with Tiger coming back being the greatest golfer ever, rusty and possibly injured all at the same time for anyone to get a judge.

Based on the Vegas Odds, I have back tracked my numbers to come up with -1.10 z-score for Tiger with a .90 standard deviation. That is below his pace last year, but I am not sure whether that is because last year was unsustainable for Tiger or that is based on an average season last year with rust/injury factored in.

If it is the latter than I have no problem taking Tiger, because It represents a pretty fair estimation of his skill that he is not at top form. If it is the former than why would I want to take Tiger regressing to the mean(-1.10) when he is not near top form.

I have pretty much ruled out taking Tiger to win, but what about in a match-up against Geoff Ogilvy. Here is my reasoning:

He dropped down to -220/180 against Ogilvy. Adjusting my numbers like above I have -239/239 as the fair line for that price.

Not at all a perfect comparison, If this was the final round of the Masters and Tiger was in contention do you think people would be taking the over 69?

From an online Golf forum:
Weazel079 said,

If the books give me a matchup of Tiger vs Ogilvy I’m going to unload on Geoff.

Wow. Pinny has tourney matchups out and Ogilvy is +220 vs Woods. Maybe I’m looking at this wrong but shouldn’t this line be around a pickem? The books are acting like Tiger is in top form.

It’s not like there isn’t a Tiger faction out there. But, if the books are getting 50-50 action at this number they are exposing themselves quite a bit.

The one thing that has me thrown off is the line movement. It has clearly shifted towards Ogilvy which in other sports I take to mean that the sharp/smart bettors are on that side. How many smart bettors, though would take a team coming off a big win, with a recent run of really hot play? Probably not many. I’m guessing, and it is a guess, the books are trying to protect against Ogilvy a bit.

Undecided should probably mean a pass. This is more of a huge lean to Tiger, but my instincts are telling me not to. If the line keeps dropping I probably won’t lay off.

St. Bonnies +5.5(.8)
SMU +11.5(.8)
Texas Tech +6.5(.8)
Seton Hall +6.5(.8)

Can’t wait for the awful second halves.



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3 responses to “THE TIGER DILEMMA

  1. But, if the books are getting 50-50 action at this number they are exposing themselves quite a bit.

    I just woke up from a nap, so pardon me if this is retarded, but why would a book ever set a +220 line to get 50/50 action? Wouldn’t they be setting it up to get 70/30 action, by definition?

  2. “Wouldn’t they be setting it up to get 70/30 action, by definition?”

    Yes. I was trying to say that I think the books may be getting around 50-50 action based on what I can find on internet forums. If that is the case then the books are rooting for Tiger to win.

  3. Tiger is -215 right now. If I wake up tomorrow and he is -215 or lower I am taking that bet.

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