If you haven’t figured it out, I am basically starting with the biggest PECOTA-total differentials and working my way down.
Pinny: Over -172 .618 true %
Under 156 .382 true %
PECOTA: 89-73 (815RS-733RA)
I have to admit, PECOTA’s projection here really caught me off gaurd. I imagined the Dodgers as an 83-84 win team. Especially scoring 815 runs, I did not think of the Dodgers as an offensive powerhouse.
Last season, they scored 700 runs, so PECOTA is projecting a 115 run improvement. The Dodgers also under-preformed their 2nd and 3rd order record by a few games last year in winning 84 games.
When you consider that the Dodgers got 66 games from Andruw Jones in center and 85 from Juan Pierre in left(along with 19 in CF) The Outfield should be drastically improved offensively.
It’s not Bill James, but It does show you that the Dodgers offense over a full season will be much better.
Pitching-wise the Dodgers have some Gems. Billingsly is my favorite pitcher not named “Cole Hamels.” He struck out over 9 batters per 9 innings, and had an FIP of 3.35.
Kuroda and Kershaw both had below average FIPs last year that were lower than their actual ERA. Wolf had a lower FIP and decent ERA last season, as well as an okay 7.66K/9. Who knows what you will get with Schmidt.
The Dodgers bullpen should be fantastic this year. Broxton struck out 10+/9 innings, and had an FIP lower than his ERA.
VERDICT: I think in the end -176 seems like an extremely fair line so I don’t recommend betting this, or I don’t think they will be really underrated, but just straight against the number its got to be a strong lean towards the over. For VW’s contest this one will be one of my higher confidences.