REXFORD BUZZSAW

HUMANA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

rexfordbuzzsaw — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 06:30:35 +0000

Top 25:

Player	total wins	odds
Matt Kuchar	5.56%	1698
Phil Mickelson	4.28%	2236
Bill Haas	3.49%	2769
Dustin Johnson	3.17%	3060
Bo Van Pelt	3.04%	3194
Zach Johnson	2.82%	3450
Charles Howell III	2.79%	3482
Martin Laird	2.09%	4689
Brian Gay	1.86%	5282
Ryan Moore	1.84%	5323
Ben Crane	1.79%	5483
Bryce Molder	1.74%	5650
John Senden	1.68%	5859
Brandt Snedeker	1.66%	5917
Carl Pettersson	1.57%	6257
Kevin Na	1.48%	6643
Spencer Levin	1.45%	6787
David Toms	1.43%	6908
Anthony Kim	1.39%	7115
Bud Cauley	1.29%	7646
Chris Kirk	1.28%	7713
Brendon de Jonge	1.24%	7991
Rory Sabbatini	1.22%	8110
Jason Dufner	1.19%	8310
Fredrik Jacobson	1.16%	8551

WEDNESDAY PRESIDENTS’ CUP LIVE ODDS

rexfordbuzzsaw — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 01:50:25 +0000

Overall:

			Time	12:39 AM
TEAM RESULTS	OVERALL	odds	DAY 1	Odds
USA win	62.20%	-165	73.30%	-275
Intl win	30.70%	226	1.10%	8991
Tie	7.20%	1289	25.70%	289

Matches:

					Time	12:39 AM
Match #	Thru	US TEAM	Win	Tie	Loss	INTERNATIONAL
Match 1	16	Bubba Watson/ Webb Simpson	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	Ernie Els/ Ryo Ishikawa
Match 2	16	Bill Haas/ Nick Watney	32.50%	35.40%	32.10%	Geoff Ogilvy/ Charl Schwartzel
Match 3	14	Dustin Johnson/ Matt Kuchar	3.90%	11.30%	84.80%	Aaron Baddeley/ Jason Day
Match 4	12	Phil Mickelson/ Jim Furyk	98.70%	1.00%	0.30%	Retief Goosen/ Robert Allenby
Match 5	12	Hunter Mahan/ David Toms	99.20%	0.70%	0.10%	Kyung-Tae Kim/ Y.E. Yang
Match 6	12	Tiger Woods/ Steve Stricker	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%	Adam Scott/ K.J. Choi

BETTER TO GRADUATE FROM Q-SCHOOL OR NW TOUR?

rexfordbuzzsaw — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 18:45:51 +0000

25 new players earned PGA Tour cards this week at the Nationwide Tour championship. But how well will they do next year?

In the past few years, Q-school grads have actually done better in terms of results than Nationwide Tour players.

But, that overlooks some circumstances. My guess would be that Q-school players tend to be slightly better overall. It seems there are more players that have been on the PGA Tour, had a bad year and had to go back to q-school, than on the Nationwide Tour.

So, I broke it down just by rookies over the past two years.

	Rook yr	Rounds	Prev yr	Rounds
Nationwide	0.1541	1521	0.0152	1682
Q-School	0.2205	1756	0.0883	945

Seems like the Nationwide Tour actually is a better proving ground. Not terribly surprising considering a whole season is a better predictor than the 10 or so rounds it takes to get through Q-school.

Of course, it’s silly to not think about other circumstances here, too. For example, Rickie Fowler was a Q-school grad, who based on his play after he turned pro would have fared quite well on the NW Tour had he played there. Also, in playing some big tournaments and in the fall finish he was clearly more prepared than the average rookie.

Also, consider Kyle Stanley. Stanley’s 2010 season on the Nationwide Tour was pretty good. For whatever reason, he didn’t make as much money as his level of play usually would. Then he qualified by Q-school. He actually has compared very similarly to Keegan Bradley in the last two years. Clearly he was ready for the PGA Tour.

So, that got me thinking, maybe number of pro rounds is a better predictor. Here’s a look at that breakdown

Players with over 70 rounds on major tours in season before PGA rookie year:

	Rook yr	Rounds	Prev yr	Rounds
Total	0.1154	1689	0.0349	2009
Nationwide Grads	0.1253	1184	0.0257	1442
Q-School Grads	0.0921	505	0.0585	567

This group is similar to the averages above for previous year, but a lot better in the rookie season on the PGA Tour. Mainly because to play a lot of rounds is usually a good sign of a better player and more rounds rules out the possibility of a fluke.

Players with between 30 and 60 rounds:

	Rook yr	Rounds	Prev yr	Rounds
Total	0.2482	599	0.0546	397
Nationwide Grads	0.2552	337	-0.0473	240
Q-School Grads	0.2392	262	0.2104	157

It didn’t really matter which way these guys came to the tour, they were a lot worse.

Players with less than 30:

	Rook yr	Rounds	Prev yr	Rounds
All from Q-school	0.218971	903	0.013158	163

Again, these players were not quite nearly as good as more tested players.

As the PGA Tour discusses ending Q-school it’s hard not to agree with them in some form. Players that pretty much qualify without being a member of at least the Nationwide Tour are not really ready for the PGA Tour. On the other hand, there are certain tested players, like Rickie Fowler or Kyle Stanley that failed or didn’t have the chance to qualify through the Nationwide Tour that are clearly ready. From the Tour’s perspective, more pro rounds are good for their incoming rookies as it helps eliminate the fluky players and prepares the good ones better.

Maybe the best solution for the Tour is most of the spots are earned from the Nationwide Tour, but there should still be some kind of last chance qualifying for players that are PGA Tour veterans off down years, experienced Nationwide Players and up and coming young college players with a lot of amateur success.

CIMB ASIA PACIFIC CLASSIC RD 2

rexfordbuzzsaw — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 17:31:50 +0000

Updated after Round 2:

Player	total wins	odds
Fredrik Jacobson	29.44%	240
Bo Van Pelt	23.18%	331
Jeff Overton	19.79%	405
Stewart Cink	3.85%	2501
Mark Wilson	3.63%	2655
Jhonattan Vegas	3.37%	2872
Jimmy Walker	3.22%	3006
Camilo Villegas	1.99%	4938
Robert Allenby	1.97%	4976
Carl Pettersson	1.60%	6150
Jerry Kelly	1.15%	8596
Cameron Tringale	0.84%	11876

rexfordbuzzsaw — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 05:45:53 +0000

Updated after Round 1:

Player	Tourney win	Money list	Tour Card	Avg. Money	Delta
Mark Anderson	7.40%	0.00%	99.81%	$220,547.24	0.98%
Camilo Benedetti	7.17%	0.00%	16.74%	$153,203.90	10.79%
Jason Kokrak	9.81%	9.11%	100.00%	$346,858.32	0.00%
Ted Potter Jr.	8.07%	29.56%	100.00%	$424,338.15	0.00%
Roger Tambellini	2.39%	0.00%	5.51%	$119,373.99	3.67%
Darron Stiles	3.04%	0.00%	21.07%	$170,863.30	12.05%
Roberto Castro	6.02%	0.00%	84.00%	$205,700.14	17.73%
Steve Wheatcroft	3.41%	0.00%	100.00%	$224,421.85	0.00%
Kyle Thompson	3.38%	0.00%	100.00%	$252,610.75	0.00%
Ryan Armour	1.83%	0.00%	5.56%	$132,264.17	2.51%
David Lingmerth	2.20%	0.00%	6.45%	$134,356.04	2.73%
Aaron Watkins	1.98%	0.00%	6.72%	$144,312.90	2.88%
Cliff Kresge	2.25%	0.00%	10.20%	$156,886.75	4.44%
Garth Mulroy	2.07%	0.00%	99.71%	$203,184.13	0.84%
Casey Wittenberg	1.44%	0.00%	5.67%	$141,012.74	1.20%
Rob Oppenheim	2.50%	0.00%	8.31%	$146,425.53	1.00%
Matt Davidson	2.08%	0.00%	8.40%	$153,677.17	1.63%
Kyle Reifers	0.79%	0.00%	100.00%	$243,044.54	0.00%
Mathew Goggin	2.50%	6.60%	100.00%	$388,047.82	0.00%
Greg Owen	0.83%	0.00%	3.13%	$123,931.37	-1.17%
Matt Hendrix	0.85%	0.00%	4.23%	$141,206.83	-0.41%
Jeff Gove	0.57%	0.00%	3.08%	$142,463.26	-0.39%
Paul Claxton	1.33%	0.00%	6.38%	$149,327.50	-1.32%
Tommy Biershenk	2.11%	0.00%	27.33%	$176,554.22	-0.27%
Brett Wetterich	2.26%	0.00%	46.31%	$185,846.39	0.20%
Matt Every	2.91%	0.00%	100.00%	$232,577.91	0.00%
John Mallinger	2.24%	0.24%	100.00%	$254,154.37	0.00%
Russell Knox	2.45%	0.55%	100.00%	$256,438.35	0.00%
Gary Christian	1.63%	1.07%	100.00%	$265,664.18	0.00%
Alistair Presnell	0.51%	0.00%	1.32%	$109,147.22	-1.06%
Travis Hampshire	0.38%	0.00%	1.05%	$108,790.04	-0.80%
John Kimbell	0.23%	0.00%	0.72%	$109,843.22	-0.54%
Craig Bowden	0.27%	0.00%	0.88%	$110,907.41	-0.63%
Andrew Svoboda	0.81%	0.00%	2.16%	$118,982.89	-2.24%
Aaron Goldberg	1.02%	0.00%	3.49%	$133,439.56	-2.21%
Will Wilcox	0.56%	0.00%	2.78%	$141,529.14	-2.17%
Ken Duke	0.49%	0.00%	3.18%	$144,951.90	-1.77%
r Richard H. Lee	0.29%	0.00%	3.71%	$150,901.73	-2.00%
Josh Broadaway	0.31%	0.00%	16.56%	$172,541.02	-1.20%
Billy Hurley III	1.12%	0.00%	41.70%	$182,096.34	-3.61%
Daniel Chopra	0.24%	0.00%	26.39%	$176,562.05	0.26%
Martin Flores	0.69%	0.00%	95.78%	$191,023.23	3.13%
Jonas Blixt	1.01%	0.97%	100.00%	$314,307.10	0.00%
Danny Lee	0.59%	0.56%	100.00%	$310,794.91	0.00%
Justin Bolli	0.21%	0.00%	0.51%	$111,021.81	-0.83%
B.J. Staten	0.36%	0.00%	1.34%	$131,213.17	-2.35%
Brian Smock	0.40%	0.00%	2.25%	$142,552.72	-3.51%
James Nitties	0.52%	0.00%	45.01%	$180,622.92	-6.77%
Gavin Coles	0.43%	0.00%	100.00%	$236,895.30	0.00%
Erik Compton	0.30%	0.00%	100.00%	$236,800.98	0.00%
Steve Friesen	0.01%	0.00%	0.16%	$125,257.14	-0.80%
Bubba Dickerson	0.15%	0.00%	0.49%	$131,623.12	-2.00%
Luke List	0.20%	0.00%	1.31%	$142,497.10	-4.12%
J.J. Killeen	0.68%	51.19%	100.00%	$421,978.13	0.00%
Marco Dawson	0.23%	0.00%	4.27%	$156,465.76	-11.83%
Scott Brown	0.09%	0.00%	75.69%	$181,834.91	-4.02%
Troy Kelly	0.17%	0.11%	100.00%	$252,974.31	0.00%
Miguel Carballo	0.08%	0.04%	100.00%	$262,497.15	0.00%
Kirk Triplett	0.14%	0.00%	0.46%	$119,528.25	-4.58%
Brenden Pappas	0.00%	0.00%	0.18%	$139,177.63	-3.43%

Roberto Castro made the biggest move today. He jumped from about 2 in 3 to make the PGA Tour next season to 84%. Mark Anderson also pretty much clinched his tour card today as the first round leader.

On the negative side, James Nitties was about 50-50 entering the round and now is in the mid 40s to make the Tour. Marco Dawson was the biggest percentage drop on the day, but only started at 16% to make the PGA Tour anyway and now is less than 6%.

Brett Wetterich, Nitties, and Billy Hurley III are in the biggest spots right now. Each is between 40 and 47-percent to earn their tour card next season. Nitties sits at No. 25 right now in terms of projected average money.

On average, it will take $178,663.25 to make it into “The 25.”

CIMB ASIA PACIFIC CLASSIC ROUND 1

rexfordbuzzsaw — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 16:00:55 +0000

Updated after Round 1:

Player	total wins	odds
Robert Allenby	22.65%	341
Fredrik Jacobson	10.42%	860
Jhonattan Vegas	9.11%	998
Bo Van Pelt	8.88%	1027
John Senden	4.37%	2186
Jimmy Walker	3.92%	2452
Stewart Cink	3.14%	3083
Mark Wilson	2.79%	3479
Ben Crane	2.57%	3788
Carl Pettersson	2.51%	3881
Jeff Overton	2.17%	4517

NATIONWIDE TOUR MONEYLIST ODDS

rexfordbuzzsaw — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 05:02:56 +0000

Odds from this week’s Tour Championship and making the PGA Tour next season:

Player	Total wins	money wins	top-25	total money
Matt Every	4.08%	0.00%	100.00%	$236,121.30
Brett Wetterich	3.73%	0.00%	46.11%	$189,574.12
Russell Knox	3.55%	0.63%	100.00%	$259,382.62
Jason Kokrak	3.43%	3.24%	100.00%	$326,090.48
J.J. Killeen	3.28%	70.74%	100.00%	$433,596.36
John Mallinger	3.24%	0.25%	100.00%	$256,722.55
Ted Potter Jr.	2.78%	11.64%	100.00%	$404,945.63
Tommy Biershenk	2.73%	0.00%	27.60%	$178,151.14
Roberto Castro	2.72%	0.00%	66.27%	$192,537.22
Mathew Goggin	2.55%	6.52%	100.00%	$386,682.38
Gary Christian	2.43%	1.37%	100.00%	$267,580.76
Jonas Blixt	2.41%	2.25%	100.00%	$319,372.23
Rob Oppenheim	2.34%	0.00%	7.31%	$144,411.35
Troy Kelly	2.34%	1.18%	100.00%	$264,404.85
Marco Dawson	2.24%	0.00%	16.10%	$167,459.91
Billy Hurley III	2.22%	0.00%	45.31%	$186,841.64
Camilo Benedetti	2.16%	0.00%	5.95%	$134,644.97
Paul Claxton	2.09%	0.00%	7.70%	$151,032.07
Aaron Goldberg	1.98%	0.00%	5.70%	$137,262.03
Andrew Svoboda	1.92%	0.00%	4.40%	$123,468.56
James Nitties	1.86%	0.00%	51.78%	$187,085.63
Kirk Triplett	1.85%	0.00%	5.04%	$130,671.83
Greg Owen	1.75%	0.00%	4.30%	$125,602.87
Martin Flores	1.65%	0.00%	92.65%	$194,729.44
Matt Davidson	1.64%	0.00%	6.77%	$150,752.69
Steve Wheatcroft	1.62%	0.00%	100.00%	$213,809.81
Scott Brown	1.55%	0.00%	79.71%	$190,906.54
Danny Lee	1.49%	1.40%	100.00%	$314,364.42
Mark Anderson	1.46%	0.00%	98.83%	$197,982.39
Brian Smock	1.44%	0.00%	5.76%	$148,055.51
Garth Mulroy	1.39%	0.00%	98.87%	$197,651.29
Gavin Coles	1.39%	0.00%	100.00%	$242,322.30
Erik Compton	1.35%	0.00%	100.00%	$242,022.45
Casey Wittenberg	1.35%	0.00%	4.47%	$138,451.08
David Lingmerth	1.35%	0.00%	3.72%	$128,411.74
Will Wilcox	1.30%	0.00%	4.95%	$144,706.07
Matt Hendrix	1.28%	0.00%	4.64%	$141,714.75
Luke List	1.27%	0.00%	5.43%	$149,069.83
Kyle Thompson	1.26%	0.00%	100.00%	$242,227.36
Cliff Kresge	1.24%	0.00%	5.76%	$150,559.45
Miguel Carballo	1.19%	0.80%	100.00%	$270,085.70
Ken Duke	1.14%	0.00%	4.95%	$147,705.32
B.J. Staten	1.11%	0.00%	3.69%	$135,706.18
Ryan Armour	1.08%	0.00%	3.05%	$126,398.73
Alistair Presnell	1.08%	0.00%	2.38%	$111,590.97
Aaron Watkins	1.08%	0.00%	3.84%	$138,536.36
Darron Stiles	1.06%	0.00%	9.02%	$160,731.58
Richard H. Lee	1.00%	0.00%	5.71%	$153,425.80
Jeff Gove	0.82%	0.00%	3.47%	$142,472.94
Roger Tambellini	0.81%	0.00%	1.84%	$109,622.49
Travis Hampshire	0.78%	0.00%	1.85%	$110,796.85
Brenden Pappas	0.78%	0.00%	3.61%	$146,251.37
Josh Broadaway	0.66%	0.00%	17.76%	$173,993.95
Bubba Dickerson	0.65%	0.00%	2.49%	$136,003.59
Craig Bowden	0.63%	0.00%	1.51%	$112,492.64
Kyle Reifers	0.59%	0.00%	100.00%	$240,353.31
Daniel Chopra	0.58%	0.00%	26.14%	$178,032.64
Justin Bolli	0.53%	0.00%	1.34%	$113,670.43
John Kimbell	0.51%	0.00%	1.26%	$111,140.34
Steve Friesen	0.24%	0.00%	0.96%	$127,661.18

J.J. Killeen is a big favorite to win the money list overall at around 70%.

The Top-17 players on the money list are all guaranteed spots on the PGA Tour (Or, at least didn’t miss out in 100,000 sims)

HOW GOOD IS LUKE DONALD’s 2011?

rexfordbuzzsaw — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 05:52:21 +0000

Here’s a look at the Top-25 seasons individual season dating back to 2000:

Rank	Player	Z-score	Rounds	St. Dev	Year
1	Tiger Woods	-1.3863	72	0.7812	2000
2	Tiger Woods	-1.2683	58	0.7643	2006
3	Tiger Woods	-1.2201	68	0.8218	2007
4	Tiger Woods	-1.1527	70	0.8385	2009
5	Tiger Woods	-1.1096	68	0.9509	2002
6	Tiger Woods	-1.0151	68	0.8797	2003
7	Tiger Woods	-0.9903	74	0.9159	2005
8	Tiger Woods	-0.9459	76	0.8043	2004
9	Vijay Singh	-0.9246	118	0.8875	2004
10	Jim Furyk	-0.9218	84	0.7967	2006
11	Vijay Singh	-0.9191	102	0.7936	2003
12	Tiger Woods	-0.9093	76	0.8186	2001
13	Ernie Els	-0.8954	90	0.8672	2004
14	Luke Donald	-0.8516	82	0.8277	2011
15	Phil Mickelson	-0.8222	76	0.9268	2000
16	Vijay Singh	-0.8130	109	0.8393	2005
17	Lee Westwood	-0.8058	72	0.9083	2010
18	Davis Love III	-0.7981	75	1.0098	2001
19	Ernie Els	-0.7975	64	0.8827	2000
20	Mike Weir	-0.7887	75	0.7948	2003
21	Phil Mickelson	-0.7871	69	0.8556	2006
22	Adam Scott	-0.7869	70	0.9310	2006
23	Jim Furyk	-0.7862	101	0.7575	2003
24	Ernie Els	-0.7789	60	0.7482	2003
25	Luke Donald	-0.7716	79	0.8026	2006

So, a pretty good season for Donald. The best anyone has done since 2009 Tiger Woods.

It will be interesting to see if Donald’s European performance for the rest of the year is good enough to keep him ahead of what Westwood did last season. Looking at their careers Donald is pretty clearly the better player. He turned pro in 2001, and by 2004 he was already putting up scores that would put him in the top-12 or 15 players in the world. He’s had 6 seasons in his pro career that were at least that good. Half of Donald’s pro years have landed in the top-100 of all seasons. Only Tiger, Vijay, Phil and Ernie have a better ration in the last 12 years.

Clearly, Donald is a good player.

Where does he go from here?

In his mid-30s it’s not really surprising that Donald is having a career year. That is the typical prime for golfers. He also has had an extremely good college career and quickly started dominating on the pro tours. It would be hard to match 2011, but it’s also hard to say Donald will fall far. Really, at this point only a fully healthy Tiger and maybe Sergio could be considered better overall players. Of course, young guys like Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer could be right on his heels.

The only concern I have with Donald is length. He hit 55% of his drives less than 280 last season, the highest percentage of any of the 13 players below -.4 in my rankings last year. Players that hit a similar (between 52 and 58%) ratio of drives less than 280 yards are actually worse than a PGA Tour average player on average.

Donald is hitting the ball almost 275 off the tee this year. Furyk, David Toms and Zach Johnson hit the ball a few yards shorter and were pretty good players. But, players that hit the ball less than 273 off the tee are basically average players. Only Bryce Molder and Brian Gay are decent players on the PGA Tour in that group. The problem is, if courses get maybe 200 yards longer on average, Donald could hit a limit as to how good he can be. In majors, where the courses tend to be longer, Donald is about 1-standard deviation worse than his average. He’s still a good player, but not quite as dominant as he has been in other tour events.

WATFO: DONALD TAKES THE MONEY TITLE?

rexfordbuzzsaw — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 19:58:17 +0000

Luke Donald basically needed a top-2 finish and some luck from Simpson to come away with the money title. Here’s a look at how it played out through the week. Marked by chance to win, through that given hole.

I only ran before the first, before the second, before the third, before the fourth and then the final nine holes.

Donald started the week at less than 20% to win, and pretty steadily declined until the back nine on Sunday. Then starting really at the 11^th hole, there was a five hole stretch that brought him from less than 10% to take the money title to over 97%.

Here’s a look at the back nine, more specifically:

Donald actually birdied the 64^th hole (No. 10), but didn’t really pick up much as Webb Simpson also made birdie on that hole. Then Donald birdied the next 5, as well, while Simpson played that stretch in 1-over par. That basically sealed the deal for Donald and probably is as good a six hole stretch as there ever has been in golf.

I’ll take a look at where Donald’s season ranks in the last decade later this week.

RACE FOR THE 2011 MONEY TITLE

rexfordbuzzsaw — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 03:17:09 +0000

Looks like this:

Luke Donald wins	17.140%
Webb Simpson wins	82.870%

Donald definitely has to get top-2 money without a tie. Then he needs Simpson to make less than around 20^th place money if he finishes solo second. That’s why Webb is a big favorite.

It’s taken Webb 7 more events to get his money though, and the books have Donald favored this week, so it’s not like Simpson is a better player.