I’m in two pools this year, the first is a standard 1-2-4-8-16-32 pool and the second is a 1-2-4-6-10-14 format. That changes the strategy a lot.
As always, winning this bracket is about trying to pick the best possible outlier. Unless you’re in a pool with only a handful of people, picking the best average score does you no good. You want to go for the outlier that gets you in the top few of your pool if you get lucky. I’ll start with the traditional ESPN format.
10-20-40-80-160-320:
The most important round to win in this one is the champion. If you don’t get the Champion you probably aren’t winning. It also helps if you don’t take the team that everyone else is taking. If Kansas, Duke and Ohio State all have about the same chance of winning, you’re better off taking the least popular and hoping you get lucky.
So, I made a chart of marginal points to win*
*If you care, marginal points is a team’s (Chance to win)*(Points for round)*(% of ESPN contestants that picked the team to win)+(Chance to lose)*-(Average of all other teams points for round)*(1-% of ESPN contestants that picked the team)
To win it all:
Rk
|
Team
|
Pct picked
|
% to win
|
Marg. Pts
|
1
|
Duke
|
15.00%
|
12.70%
|
31.257
|
2
|
Kansas
|
22.80%
|
13.25%
|
29.790
|
3
|
Ohio State
|
26.30%
|
12.39%
|
26.351
|
4
|
Pittsburgh
|
6.20%
|
8.47%
|
21.424
|
5
|
North Carolina
|
4.10%
|
4.01%
|
7.820
|
6
|
Texas
|
1.80%
|
3.81%
|
7.359
|
7
|
San Diego State
|
1.80%
|
3.81%
|
7.359
|
8
|
Kentucky
|
1.90%
|
3.81%
|
7.351
|
9
|
Notre Dame
|
3.80%
|
3.46%
|
6.110
|
10
|
Florida
|
1.30%
|
2.99%
|
4.721
|
I’m guessing I’m in a pool of 50-100 people so I think Duke is the way to go. If you’re trying to win the ESPN tourney challenge, I wouldn’t even bother with the top seeds. Even if you get it right, the odds of the rest of your bracket being good enough to win are not very good. I think San Diego St. and Kentucky are the way to go in super large pools. For me, I’ll stick with Duke again.
The next most important round is not surprisingly, the National Runner up. here’s the same chart of that:
Rk
|
Team
|
Pct picked
|
% to win
|
Marg. Pts
|
1
|
Duke
|
24.20%
|
20.79%
|
22.836
|
2
|
Pittsburgh
|
17.50%
|
17.81%
|
20.722
|
3
|
Kansas
|
47.40%
|
25.25%
|
19.783
|
4
|
Ohio State
|
39.20%
|
20.52%
|
18.038
|
5
|
Notre Dame
|
12.00%
|
8.46%
|
8.224
|
6
|
San Diego State
|
4.00%
|
7.80%
|
7.894
|
7
|
North Carolina
|
7.40%
|
7.80%
|
7.615
|
8
|
Kentucky
|
3.50%
|
7.42%
|
7.329
|
9
|
Texas
|
3.70%
|
7.42%
|
7.314
|
10
|
Florida
|
4.20%
|
7.05%
|
6.667
|
It’s pretty much a toss-up between Kansas, who is better, but super-popular, and Pitt the No. 1 seed in by far the weakest region in the bracket. I’ve already taken Duke to win, so that leaves me with Pitt. Trying to win ESPN’s overall pool, I like the Aztecs if you haven’t already taken them, Notre Dame could be a good option, but overall I’d slide down to the 11 spot (unlisted) and go with Purdue. If Wisconsin didn’t have an absurdly hard pod, then I would recommend them, too, but because of that they come in at 16 on my list. Pitt seems to be the No. 1 seed most people are picking to lose early, so how about a National runner up?
On to the rest of the final four, see a pattern developing?
Rk
|
Team
|
Pct picked
|
% to win
|
Marg. Pts
|
1
|
Duke
|
48.50%
|
37.41%
|
14.337
|
2
|
Pittsburgh
|
49.70%
|
32.73%
|
11.958
|
3
|
Ohio State
|
58.90%
|
36.35%
|
11.064
|
4
|
Kansas
|
60.20%
|
36.16%
|
10.650
|
5
|
San Diego State
|
11.90%
|
17.74%
|
9.324
|
6
|
Purdue
|
7.40%
|
16.03%
|
8.397
|
7
|
Notre Dame
|
20.00%
|
17.34%
|
8.185
|
8
|
Kentucky
|
8.20%
|
15.82%
|
8.148
|
9
|
Florida
|
15.10%
|
15.90%
|
7.596
|
10
|
Texas
|
10.50%
|
14.96%
|
7.263
|
11
|
Syracuse
|
12.50%
|
14.86%
|
7.017
|
12
|
Louisville
|
8.50%
|
12.68%
|
5.564
|
13
|
North Carolina
|
16.30%
|
13.14%
|
5.432
|
14
|
Connecticut
|
25.00%
|
13.24%
|
4.931
|
15
|
Wisconsin
|
6.70%
|
10.43%
|
3.796
|
16
|
BYU
|
11.00%
|
9.27%
|
2.696
|
17
|
Kansas State
|
5.80%
|
6.68%
|
0.657
|
18
|
St. John’s
|
6.10%
|
5.96%
|
0.050
|
19
|
Washington
|
1.10%
|
5.42%
|
-0.427
|
20
|
Georgetown
|
1.50%
|
4.47%
|
-1.269
|
Duke and Pitt are already off my bracket, so I’m looking for someone out of the East and Southwest. Ohio State and Kansas would fit in nicely, but I’m going with Kentucky and Purdue. I’m not sure what size pool going away from the No. 1 seeds is the best idea, but I’m hoping mine is big enough. As far as going for the ESPN bracket, with SDSU or Kentucky as your winner, and Purdue as the runner up, I think Kentucky and SDSU should be in the final four. It pains me to say it, but Florida might be the pick as the 2 seed in the SE. Wisconsin would be a perfect option out of this region, but they really get screwed by having such a hard first two games for a 4-seed. I’d tend to lean towards the more dangerous Wisconsin because they are less popular and I like them better than Florida.
Moving on to the Elite 8: (I couldn’t find odds so I switched to KPom’s log5 projections)
Rk
|
Team
|
Pct picked
|
% to win
|
Marg. Pts
|
1
|
San Diego State
|
32.00%
|
47.10%
|
11.724
|
2
|
Purdue
|
31.10%
|
41.80%
|
10.186
|
3
|
BYU
|
27.00%
|
35.40%
|
8.596
|
4
|
Texas
|
19.40%
|
32.00%
|
8.187
|
5
|
Syracuse
|
42.90%
|
35.20%
|
6.670
|
6
|
Duke
|
73.10%
|
56.50%
|
5.789
|
7
|
Louisville
|
16.60%
|
25.20%
|
5.740
|
8
|
Florida
|
39.50%
|
29.40%
|
5.392
|
9
|
Notre Dame
|
55.80%
|
36.20%
|
5.372
|
10
|
Ohio State
|
78.10%
|
62.00%
|
5.250
|
11
|
Pittsburgh
|
70.00%
|
47.40%
|
5.214
|
12
|
Kentucky
|
16.50%
|
23.10%
|
4.894
|
13
|
North Carolina
|
45.20%
|
28.60%
|
4.673
|
14
|
Kansas
|
79.20%
|
52.40%
|
4.090
|
15
|
Wisconsin
|
12.80%
|
20.40%
|
3.958
|
16
|
Washington
|
5.70%
|
19.70%
|
3.956
|
17
|
Connecticut
|
60.60%
|
22.10%
|
2.117
|
18
|
Utah State
|
1.40%
|
11.90%
|
0.320
|
19
|
Cincinnati
|
2.70%
|
11.80%
|
0.267
|
20
|
Gonzaga
|
3.00%
|
11.10%
|
-0.074
|
Now, you’ve got to use your head a bit. I want to throw out BYU and Syracuse because of potential regional biases and BYU is probably overrated slightly by this anyway, but Cuse is the only remotely good option in the bottom half of the East, unless you’re trying to win ESPN, then take the Huskies. I doubt San Diego St. is quite likely to advance to the Elite 8 as KPom overstated their chances in winning, getting to the Champ and making the Final four, but they are still the way to go. Again, KPom seems to be overstating the case for Texas, and I think you pick up more by taking Duke out of this region in more important rounds, so I’m going to ignore that. In the Southwest, it’s hard to go against Louisville. KPom has Kansas at only around a coinflip to make the Elite 8, and he was close on all the other odds, so with nearly 80% of the people taking them, they aren’t worth it if you don’t already have them winning the title. In the Southeast, Florida is really the only good option for my purposes, where Jimmer should be overrated. On ESPN, I think taking BYU to the elite 8 is probably the way to go.
Rk
|
Team
|
Pct picked
|
% to win
|
Marg. Pts
|
1
|
Brigham Young
|
50.20%
|
55.70%
|
4.896
|
2
|
Texas
|
65.50%
|
67.90%
|
4.448
|
3
|
Washington
|
15.60%
|
37.70%
|
4.180
|
4
|
Purdue
|
69.70%
|
68.00%
|
3.914
|
5
|
Florida
|
71.50%
|
57.80%
|
2.956
|
6
|
Wisconsin
|
44.60%
|
38.50%
|
2.869
|
7
|
Kentucky
|
74.70%
|
61.00%
|
2.830
|
8
|
Louisville
|
76.20%
|
60.80%
|
2.650
|
9
|
Syracuse
|
78.80%
|
62.20%
|
2.435
|
10
|
San Diego St.
|
82.50%
|
70.10%
|
2.349
|
11
|
Cincinnati
|
7.70%
|
28.70%
|
2.170
|
12
|
Notre Dame
|
86.70%
|
66.60%
|
1.673
|
13
|
North Carolina
|
81.40%
|
52.40%
|
1.668
|
14
|
Utah St.
|
10.40%
|
26.90%
|
1.629
|
15
|
Pittsburgh
|
91.50%
|
76.50%
|
1.269
|
16
|
Connecticut
|
85.50%
|
48.30%
|
1.142
|
17
|
Duke
|
94.10%
|
84.50%
|
0.988
|
18
|
Ohio St.
|
94.50%
|
83.20%
|
0.905
|
19
|
Arizona
|
26.00%
|
24.10%
|
0.725
|
20
|
Kansas
|
96.00%
|
72.60%
|
0.561
|
Let’start with the Easy ones. Texas losing to Duke, Washington to the Sweet 16, (though KPom probably overstates their case), Ohio State, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Kansas. That leaves BYU’s pod, where I would guarantee that they are more than 50% picked in my pool. Even at a 75% clip, I still feel like they are better than the next option, Gonzaga, so BYU it is. Finally, incredibly unpopular on ESPN Cincinnati rounds out the sweet 16.
Finally, let’s go matchup by matchup for the rest of it. George Mason is only slightly better to the point that it basically doesn’t matter in terms of marginal points. Feel free to pick this one by uniform color or mascot if you like. With 82% of people taking West Virginia, there is no point in not picking Clemson for the upset. Xavier and Marquette is another complete toss-up, so I’ll say Xavier, the favorite. North Carolina is actually a –EV pick, but I don’t want to give up the 9.6 expected points you’re getting in that matchup. UCLA is an underdog as a seven seed, but Michigan State is a little too popular. Gonzaga is an easy upset in basically a toss-up game against much more popular St. John’s. Old Dominion is an easy pick as an unpopular favorite. I’ll take UNLV in the 8/9 game in the Southwest, as well as USC/VCU against No. 6 Georgetown though that is a complete guess. In the two final games in that region, I’m going with, Richmond and Texas A&M. Michigan, Arizona, Bucknell and Temple round out my bracket.
Part 2, with a different scoring system will be up later tonight/tomorrow morning.